Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET November 22 – November 29, 2012

Increased rainfall during the last week helped to improve mid-season dryness across Kenya and Somalia, however moderate seasonal deficits remain for many local areas.

1) Even with a reduction of precipitation last week, several weeks of above-average rainfall has led to significant moisture surpluses. An elevated potential for moderate to heavy rainfall may trigger additional flooding, damage local infrastructure, and negatively impact cropping activities throughout Uganda, Kenya, northern Tanzania,
Rwanda and Burundi.

2) While increased rains helped to mitigate moisture deficits in the last seven days, a continued midseason suppression of Oct-Dec rainfall leaves a lessened period for recovery in the next several weeks. Consequently, this could result in a deterioration of pastoral and agro-pastoral conditions, and possible crop yield reductions by the end of season.

3) Poorly distributed rains have led to early season dryness throughout parts of Lesotho, and the Free State, Eastern Cape, and North West States of South Africa. Since the end of October, decreased rains have also weakened moisture surpluses in neighboring states in the north and east of country which may impede the development of crops that were planted early in the season.