Kenya + 9 more

Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET, April 11 – April 17, 2013

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Several weeks of above-average seasonal precipitation over the Greater Horn has negatively impacted parts of Kenya

1) Since the beginning of the year, poorly distributed and significantly below average seasonal rainfall has led to deteriorating ground conditions, stressed vegetation and negatively impacted cropping activities and livestock throughout many parts of southwestern Africa. Many local areas in Angola and Namibia have experienced less than half of their normal rainfall accumulation since January.

2) Since the beginning of February, pronounced dry spells and unseasonably low rainfall totals have affected parts of the Caprivi Strip region, Zambia, Botswana and South Africa. Poorly distributed seasonal rainfall throughout parts of Botswana and Zimbabwe were associated with heavy, flood-inducing rains in mid-January followed by low and erratic rainfall for more than two months. With no opportunity for recovery as the southern Africa monsoon is ending, this is expected to negatively impact cropping activities across the region.

3) After above-average precipitation was received in January, seasonal rains ceased since mid-February leading to significant moisture deficits, which are likely to negatively impact crops over the Cabo Delgado and Nampula provinces of northern Mozambique.

4) Since the beginning of March, enhanced rainfall in the Greater Horn has not been distributed over the northern and western portions of Ethiopia. As a result, the development of early to mid-season moisture deficits is likely to continue to negatively impact cropping activities throughout the “Belg” producing areas of the country.

5) Several weeks of heavy precipitation has led to localized flooding, inundation along the Tana River, damage to infrastructure, thousands of displaced people, and fatalities throughout many local areas of Kenya. Locally torrential rainfall is forecast for the third consecutive week across the Marsabit, Isiolo, Meru, Narok and Kajiado districts during the next seven days.

6) Significantly heavy rainfall during the last two weeks has led to flooding, damaged crops, and the displacement of thousands of people along the Shabelle River. Another week of enhanced rainfall forecast over eastern Ethiopia and southern Somalia is expected conditions during mid-April.