Baringo County: Drought Early Warning Bulletin for March 2015

Situation Report
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Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification

Drought Phase: ALERT

Biophysical Indicators

  • Biophysical indicators show some unusual fluctuations outside the expected seasonal range.

o Very little rainfall received in the month -below normal.
o The vegetation condition index VCI-3month is above normal.

Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators)

Production indicators:

  • There are increased livestock migrations in search of water. However security related/restricted animal movements is reported.
  • Current livestock body condition is poor and deteriorating no drought animal deaths reported. Milk production is below normal range.

Access indicators

  • Terms of trade are within normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods.
  • Water in the pans is below normal and declining (15-35%) and trekking distances is within normal range.

Utilization indicators:

  • MUAC is at 18.4% and slowly deteriorating.
  • Occurrence of waterborne/water related diseases is above normal.

Generally, the drought indicators point towards late alert phase.

Drought risks are medium and situation may deteriorate if rains delay as we go into April because of increased temperatures. The heightened insecurity might minimize movements of livestock and trade hence increasing food insecurity and drought risks.

Drought risks will increase significantly if the long rains [MAM] delay or are depressed and the situation compounded further by the sustained insecurity and prolonged government security operations.

In view of the possible alarm situation in the next drought spell period, it is recommended to scale up preparedness activities and facilitate peace building efforts.