Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification
Drought Phase: NORMAL Biophysical Indicators
- Biophysical indicators show some unusual fluctuations outside the expected seasonal range.
- Very little rainfall received in the month -below normal.
- The vegetation condition index VCI-3month is above normal.
Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators)
- There are minimal livestock migrations in search of water. However security related/restricted animal movements is reported.
- Current livestock body condition is moderate i.e neither fat nor thin and no drought animal deaths reported. Milk production is within normal range.
- Terms of trade are within normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods.
- Water in the pans is below normal and declining (40-60%) and trekking distances is within normal range.
MUAC is at 17.9% and slowly deteriorating.
Occurrence of waterborne/water related diseases is normal.
Generally, the drought indicators point towards alert phase.
Drought risks are medium and situation may deteriorate as we go into February and March because of increased temperatures and normal dry spell till March. The heightened insecurity might minimize movements of livestock and trade hence increasing food insecurity and drought risks.
Drought risks will increase significantly if the long rains [MAM] delay or are depressed and the situation compounded further by the sustained insecurity and prolonged government security operations.
In view of the possible alarm situation in the next drought spell period, it is recommended to scale up preparedness activities and facilitate peace building efforts.