By Barry Moody
NAIROBI, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Attempts to paper over deep social and ethnic rifts underlying Kenya's violence for the sake of a quick return to calm and booming economic growth may store up worse problems for the future.
The explosion of violence after the disputed re-election of President Mwai Kibaki -- around 500 people have died -- reflected failure to deal with huge wealth disparities and politically manipulated ethnic tensions going back decades.
Analysts say the business and political elite and flourishing middle class from Kibaki's majority Kikuyu ethnic group are anxious to restore normality and get back to the highest rate of economic growth for 30 years.
That may encourage Kibaki to press ahead -- he has already announced half his cabinet -- in the belief that Raila Odinga's opposition, faced by a fait accompli, will run out of steam. But even if Kibaki succeeds, the problems behind a shocking outbreak of violence will remain, based on deep social inequalities, resentment of Kikuyu dominance and unscrupulous politicians on both sides stoking ethnic hatred.
"The fact is that the artificial peace and tranquility we have always taken for granted, has forever been shattered," said commentator Macharia Gaitho in the Daily Nation newspaper.
"The solution is not in the rival elites entering into coalition or sharing power. It is in comprehensive reshaping of society."
Analysts say Western perceptions of Kenya as an island of democratic stability in a turbulent region ignored some of the worst tribal tensions and wealth disparities in Africa.
"Anyone who expressed shock at the recent violence in such a 'stable' country clearly knows nothing about Kenya," said Richard Dowden, head of the Royal African Society.
ARMY OF DISPOSSESSED
Despite sharply increased growth since Kibaki won an election in 2002, the gap between rich and poor has widened, creating a vast class of dispossessed ready to take to the streets to vent their frustration.
Conspicuous wealth in the gated compounds and luxury cars of Nairobi's upper class is a daily reminder of the contrast with the fetid slums where 60 percent of the population live.
It is no coincidence that the most powerful force available to Odinga, who says Kibaki stole the election, is the army of protesters he can command in Kibera, one of Africa's biggest shanty-towns.
Maina Kiai, head of the government's own human rights watchdog, said much of the Kikuyu elite and middle class just wanted to get back to work under a Kibaki government.
"I think you are finding a clique benefiting from the state saying: 'Let's move on.' The thing that is disturbing is the merging of calm and peace. That is very dangerous. Calm does not mean peace. Zimbabwe is calm but is it peaceful?" he said.
"That is stupid. That is shortsighted. You have got to get to the bottom of this, otherwise it will happen again."
The worst ethnic atrocities after the election were in the Rift Valley, where Kalenjin gangs attacked Kikuyus. The roots of violence in this traditionally Kalenjin area go back to independence when British colonial settlers sold rich agricultural land to Kikuyus favoured by the new government. During the nineties, the government of President Daniel arap Moi, a Kalenjin, created militias who attacked Kikuyus as part of election rigging. The murderous Kikuyu Mungiki gang, now notorious for brutal murders, was a response to that.
Around 3,000 people were killed and up to 400,000 displaced during that violence. Now a new wave of killings has forced thousands of Kikuyus to flee in a form of ethnic cleansing.
Kiai, like other experts, says the militias were never disbanded and played a leading role during the current troubles.
"Torching of houses, burning of property, killing...is a product of the 90s," he said.
Odinga who led almost all opinion polls ahead of the election and appeared to be winning until Kibaki was handed a narrow victory, mobilised an alliance of most of Kenya's other tribes resentful of Kikuyu dominance under Kibaki.
Ethnic violence "could recur again and again unless the underlying grievances are properly and comprehensively addressed," Gaitho said.
Joel Barkan, of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said Kenya was at a crossroads. "One fork leads to continued chaos .... the other fork leads to the consolidation of democracy and renewed economic development."
(Editing by Ralph Boulton)