Kazakhstan

GIEWS Country Brief: Kazakhstan - Reference Date: 26-April-2021

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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  • Favourable weather conditions for 2021 winter wheat crop

  • Above‑average cereal production obtained in 2020

  • Cereal exports forecast at slightly below‑average level in 2020/21

  • Export prices of milling wheat remained quite stable since September 2020

Favourable weather conditions for 2021 winter wheat crop

Harvesting of the 2021 minor winter wheat crop, which was planted in October and November last year in the main producing southern regions, is expected to take place between June and August. Weather conditions have been overall favourable during the season and, as of mid‑April, vegetation conditions were at near‑average levels.

Planting of the main spring wheat crop is expected to start in May in the key producing northern provinces and crops will be harvested from mid‑August. The spring wheat output amounts, on average, to over 95 percent of the total annual wheat production in the country.

Above‑average cereal production obtained in 2020

Harvesting of the 2020 cereal crops was completed last October and the aggregate production is estimated at about 19.8 million tonnes, 5 percent above the five‑year average level. The result is on account of above‑average outputs of wheat, barley and maize, officially estimated at about 14.3 million tonnes, 3.7 million tonnes and 958 000 tonnes, respectively, mainly due to large plantings.

Cereal exports forecast at slightly below‑average level in 2020/21

Total cereal exports in the 2020/21 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at about 8.6 million tonnes, 5 percent below the average volume. Wheat exports are forecast at 7.5 million tonnes, slightly below the five‑year average volume. Barley exports are projected at a well below‑average level of 1 million tonnes due to weak demand from importing countries and increased domestic demand for feed barley in order to compensate for the limited availabilities of feed wheat.

Export prices of milling wheat remained quite stable since September 2020

Export prices of milling quality wheat remained unchanged or increased slightly between September 2020 and February 2021, due to an overall stable demand for wheat grain and flour from importing countries. Prices declined moderately in March 2021 but remained about 5 percent above their levels in the corresponding month a year before.

In the domestic market, retail prices of first grade wheat flour followed an increasing trend over the last two years and, in March 2021, prices were on average 5 percent higher than a year earlier.

Retail prices of potatoes, another food staple in the country, seasonally increased since October 2020 and reached, in March 2021, levels about 10 percent above those in the corresponding month in 2019.