GIEWS Country Brief: Kazakhstan - Reference Date: 17-December-2020

News and Press Release
Originally published
View original



  • Near‑average cereal production obtained in 2020

  • Cereal exports forecast below‑average level in 2020/21

  • Export prices of milling wheat remained quite stable since September 2020

Near‑average cereal production obtained in 2020

Harvesting of the 2020 cereal crops was completed in October and the aggregate production is estimated at 18.6 million tonnes, slightly below the five‑year average. The production of wheat is set at 12.5 million tonnes, 10 percent below average due to drier and warmer‑than‑average weather conditions in May and June, which negatively affected yields in some key wheat‑producing northern regions. By contrast, the 2020 outputs of barley and maize are set at 4.1 million tonnes and 900 000 tonnes, respectively, well above the average levels mainly due to large plantings.

Planting of the 2021 minor winter wheat crop finalized in November in the main producing southern regions, under overall favourable weather conditions, except in some areas where frosts in late October hampered planting operations. Winter wheat output amounts, on average, to 3.5 percent of the total annual wheat production and crops will be harvested between June and August next year.

Cereal exports forecast below‑average level in 2020/21

Total cereal exports in the 2020/21 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at about 7.7 million tonnes, well below the average volume. Wheat exports are forecast at 6.5 million tonnes, about 15 percent below the five‑year average volume on account of the reduced outputs obtained in the last two years. Barley exports are projected at well a below‑average level of 1 million tonnes, due to weak demand from importing countries and increased domestic demand for feed barley to compensate the limited availabilities of feed wheat.

Export prices of milling wheat remained quite stable since September 2020

Export prices of milling quality wheat declined from May to August 2020, after the abolition of export quotas (see FPMA Food Policy) and remained unchanged or increased slightly between September and November, due to an overall stable demand for wheat grain and flour from importing countries. In the domestic market, retail prices of wheat flour followed an increasing trend over the last two years and, in November 2020, prices were about 10 percent higher than a year earlier.

Retail prices of potatoes, another food staple in the country, seasonally decreased between June and September 2020, due to increased market availabilities following the harvest of the 2020 tubers, and increased slightly in October and November, reaching levels of about 15 percent above those in the corresponding month in 2019.