Attachments
HIGHLIGHTS
- Cereal production in 2015 above the five-year average
- Wheat exports in 2015/16 to increase from last season following good harvest and competitive prices
- Export prices of wheat were 40 percent below their year-earlier level
Cereal production in 2015 above the five-year average
Total wheat output in 2015 is estimated at 13.7 million tonnes, around 6 percent higher than in the previous year. The increase comes from improved yields as a result of overall favourable weather conditions. The better yields offset a contraction in planting area, which occurred following a shift to more profitable crops. Good weather also contributed to better harvests of barley and maize, outputs of which both rose by more than 10 percent compare to 2014 levels. As for the winter wheat to be harvested in 2016, the planting area is reported to have shrunk by 11 percent from the previous year. However, this crop, which accounts for only 5 percent of the country’s total wheat production, was reported to be at good condition as of the end of January. Most of the 2016 wheat crop will be sown later this year in May.
Wheat exports in 2015/16 to increase from last season following good harvest and competitive prices
Kazakhstan is a main exporter of cereals (mainly wheat) and plays an important role in the food security of the subregion. The bulk of cereals are traditionally exported to neighbouring CIS countries (namely Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) but also outside the subregion to Afghanistan.
Exports of wheat in the 2015/16 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 6.2 million tonnes, up 13 percent from the 2014/15 season. During the period July‑December 2015, Kazakhstan exported about 9 percent more than the corresponding period of the previous year. The projected increase in wheat shipments is mainly driven by the current competitive price of Kazakhstan grain.
Export prices of wheat were 40 percent below their year‑earlier level
Export prices of milling wheat declined by 7 percent in January following trends in the international market and the continued depreciation of the national currency. Kazakhstan switched to a free float exchange rate in August 2015, triggering a 23 percent slide in the tenge over the first month of the new policy. As of January 2016, the export price of wheat grain was almost 40 percent below its year‑earlier level, also reflecting a recent slowdown in export demand from neighbouring countries and the 2015 bumper output. At their levels in January, wheat export prices were down to the same level as those of the other exporters in the subregion – the Russian Federation and Ukraine.