FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Slightly above‑average cereal harvest gathered in 2020
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Stable cereal import requirements forecast in 2020/21
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Food inflation increased slightly in September 2020 but remains low
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Refugees from Syrian Arab Republic continue to put strain on local resources
Slightly above‑average cereal harvest gathered in 2020
While agriculture is an important source of livelihood in rural areas, domestic production of cereals is negligible due to climate and geographic conditions. Production of vegetables and fruits is economically more significant.
Rainfall amounts in September and October 2020 were unusually low. More substantial precipitation in the first decade of November eased soil moisture deficits. Only very small quantities of sorghum, for harvest in June, are planted as winter cereals in October and November. Wheat is mostly sown in February, for harvest from June.
Cereal production in 2020 is estimated at an above‑average level of 105 000 tonnes, 5 percent above the harvest gathered in 2019, mostly on account of a slight expansion in the area planted with wheat.
Responding to the restrictions introduced by the COVID‑19 pandemic, the Ministry of Agriculture is accelerating the deployment of digital solutions. Farmers had to apply for special electronic travel permits to access their fields when movement restrictions have been in place to contain the spread of the COVID‑19 virus. A new lockdown was introduced in November 2020. In line with earlier practise, farmers could obtain permissions, such as to transport their olive harvest to mills during the lockdown, although vegetable farmers have complained about losses due to closed wholesale markets.
Stable cereal import requirements in 2020/21
Even in years with above‑average domestic production, over 97 percent of the domestic cereal food and feed requirements are satisfied through imports. Cereal import requirements in the 2020/21 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at an average level of 3 million tonnes. However, actual imports might be smaller than the forecast import requirement as demand for maize and barley for feed declined due to some poultry and livestock producers downsizing their operations as demand for their products from the hospitality sector, including hotels and restaurants, decreased.
Wheat and barley imports are usually sourced from the Black Sea region given lower freight costs compared to other origins. The Government maintains strategic stocks of wheat (both in the country and in transit) aiming at covering up to eight months of domestic consumption and about a one‑month worth of consumption of rice and maize.
Food inflation increases slightly in September 2020 but remains low
The pandemic and the measures introduced to contain it disrupted in particular the tourism and industry sectors. Consequently, the economy is forecast to contract by 5.8 percent in 2020, down from the 2 percent growth in 2019. Unemployment rate increased to 23 percent in the second quarter of 2020, the highest level at least since 2005, up from the 19.2 percent one year earlier. Returning workers from Gulf countries contributed to the increase. The contracting economy, coupled with a decline in remittances, is affecting households’ purchasing power and pushing vulnerable groups further into poverty.
The Government monitors the food prices and intervenes as needed. For example, before the four‑day lockdown in November, price ceilings were set for some varieties of vegetables to avoid “abnormal” prices increases.
In September 2020 (last information available), the annual food price inflation increased to 2.4 percent, up from the levels close to zero recorded in July and August 2020, but below the levels of 5.2 percent recorded in March 2020, when households’ stockpiled food due to the lockdown at the onset of the COVID‑19 pandemic. Overall inflation remained close to zero since April 2020 as the economic slowdown put a downward pressure on energy and transport costs.
Refugees from Syrian Arab Republic continue to put strain on local resources
According to UNHCR, as of early November 2020, almost 660 000 registered Syrian refugees were hosted in the country, mostly concentrated in Mafraq, Amman and Irbid governorates. This figure has not significantly changed since late 2016. Most of the refugees arrived between January and April 2013, when the conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic escalated. The World Food Programme targets its programmes to assist the most vulnerable refugees through food vouchers across the country and through the provision of in‑kind food distributions in the Zaatari Refugee Camp and some of the transit centres hosting refugees.
The Jordan Response Plan identified relevant interventions in the Economic Empowerment sector (including Food Security and Livelihood) benefiting both Jordanians (host community) and Syrian refugees.