by Wei Jianhua, Liu Liwei
JERUSALEM, Dec 6, 2005 (Xinhua via COMTEX) -- An Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and part of northern West Bank, or disengagement, was in the spotlight in 2005.
The unilateral move, which was rendered a success in August, has been widely viewed as a watershed for Israel's policy toward the Palestinians since the 1967 Middle East War.
POLITICAL LANDSCAPE ALTERED
From the beginning of the year, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon had been fighting with the right wing of his Likud and its religious allies who had spearheaded protest against the disengagement, resulting in a reshuffle of the cabinet with the opposition Labor Party.
The plan, however, has left serious political, social and moral scars for Israel, and eventually led to a political turmoil as Sharon quit the ruling Likud in November to set up a new central party and demanded an early poll.
Sharon's bold decision marginalizes the right and expands the space occupied by the center, and was seen as a landmark for his transformation from a hardliner to a moderate.
Meanwhile, the move will enable Sharon to stick to his set policy in peacemaking with the Palestinians following the pullout.
It pits a smaller, more hawkish Likud, possibly led by former Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, against Sharon and new Labor Party leader Amir Peretz.
Keeping away from constraints of the Likud, Sharon will be free to pursue a more moderate line he has espoused in recent years -- a two-state solution and the so-called roadmap peace plan.
Sharon, formerly advocate of Jewish settlements but now the first Israeli leader to dismantle them in the Gaza Strip and part of the West Bank, will opt for a "convergence plan," under which isolated West Bank settlements are dismantled and main settlement blocs bolstered.
But the question still remains whether the Palestinians could accept Sharon's idea for a final settlement.
POST-DISENGAGEMENT OPTIONS
For many years a vast majority in Israel have been aware of painful choices facing the country.
One choice is to quit the territories and divide the region into two states that will leave Israel with narrower borders, whose limited size is essential to ensure that Israel remains a state with a solid Jewish majority.
The other choice is continued Israeli deployment in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank to retain control of all of the territories between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River, even if it results in the loss of a Jewish majority in the area in a short period of time.
The Gaza Strip, home to 1.3 million Palestinians living in squalor and despair, is one of places of highest birth rate worldwide.
With the complete pullout from the Gaza Strip, Sharon may successfully stave off a demographic threat to the country's survival.
Ultimately, the plan's significance depends on what happens next. Was it to be Gaza first and last, as some feared, or the beginning of a process that will lead to a withdrawal from the West Bank, the bulk of what remains of Mandatory Palestine and the heartland of any Palestinian state?
In the short term, analysts said, the Israelis may use the pullout to restore "a domestic tranquility," which may succeed in bringing quite and stability to the country.
The trauma and harsh, painful scenes of the evacuation may convince the world that there will be no more pullout in the near future.
There are more than a few signs that preserving the status quo and refraining from dramatic political initiatives may well be the next prime minister's policy in the near future and the platform Sharon brings to him.
But in the long run, the electorate will have to choose between steps that resume and further Sharon's move of separating from the Palestinians and the adoption of a policy that will stiffen the Palestinians' position and stir their violent confrontation.
Once Sharon wins the March general election, he will likely start working toward achieving the roadmap peace plan by abandoning isolated settlements in the West Bank while retaining major ones and completing the security fence.
His advisers, however, have hinted that if the roadmap peace plan falls through, Sharon will likely try to draw Israel's borders on his own by the security fence and the Gaza pullout.