CONTEXT AND DISPLACEMENT TRENDS
POLITICAL AND SOCIAL CONTEXT
Diyala has a diverse ethnoreligious composition, with Sunni Arabs and Sunni Turkmen making up the majority of inhabitants (60%), followed by Shiite Arabs and Shiite Turkmen (25%) and Kurds (15%).4 The diverse nature of the province, in combination with historic and contemporary grievances, makes it prone to conflicts among the different ethnoreligious groups.5 Political disputes have continued to the present day, as reflected in the stalemate over the governorship in 2024.6 This gridlock contributes to governance challenges such as provision of services.7 With the end of Saddam Hussein’s rule, Iraq adopted a governance system known as Al-Muhasasa, which distributed political power between Shia, Sunni and Kurds.8 This approach sought to address the repression faced by Kurds and Shiite Arabs under the Ba’athist Party by granting these previously marginalized groups greater political representation.9 However, critics of the system claim it exacerbated ethnosectarian tensions and divided the country.10
In a Shiite-dominated government, Sunnis felt alienated and polarized by the state.11 Firstly, they viewed as illegitimate state-building processes initiated by a foreign power.12 Secondly, Sunni leaders were both unwilling and unable to mobilize along sectarian lines.13 Consequently, they boycotted post-2003 governance processes, including the drafting of the 2005 constitution and parliamentary elections.14 In Diyala, the refusal of Sunni communities to participate in the 2005 provincial elections resulted in limited seats on the provincial council.15 This approach of disengagement weakened the representation of Sunnis within the laws and governance of the new state.16 While Sunnis in Diyala participated in the 2009 provincial elections, accusations of electoral fraud, especially in Markaz Khanaqin, further undermined the perceived legitimacy of these processes.17
The ensuing power vacuum and legitimacy crisis gave space for extremist groups to emerge.18 Following the 2003 intervention, Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) was founded under the leadership of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.19, 20 Zarqawi would later declare Diyala the future capital of AQI’s Islamic State of Iraq.21 By 2007, the group controlled significant swaths of Diyala, including the centre of the governorate capital, Ba’quba.22 This resulted in high levels of violence and hindered the ability of the local government to provide services, aid and even salaries.23 While AQI’s indiscriminate tactics contributed to popular backlash and a decline in its activities during the Sahwa or ‘Awakening Movement’, the group was able to resurface in Kirkuk Sulaymaniyah 2013 as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).24, 25