Attachments
Introduction
The Issue Based Coalition on Migration (IBC/M) in the Arab region, co-convened by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the International Labour Organization (ILO) and the League of Arab States (LAS), together with members of the IBC/M and with support from the Regional United Nations Network on Migration in the Arab region, organized an online regional dialogue on the climate change and migration nexus in the Arab region on 24 and 25 October 2022.
The present paper builds on the rich discussion that took place during the dialogue, and on the momentum around the interlinkages between climate change and human mobility acknowledged during the 27th Conference of the Parties (COP 27) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), held in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt from 7 to 18 November 2022 and ahead of COP 28, which was held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates from 30 November till 12 December 2023.
1. Climate-induced human mobility dynamics and trends in the Arab region
The Arab region witnesses complex patterns and trends of human mobility, affecting the lives of millions of people in the region. These include internal migration, namely rural-urban migration, as well as international migration, and displacement owing to conflict and disaster. In 2020, Arab countries hosted almost 15 per cent of migrants and refugees worldwide, while 32.8 million people were displaced or migrated from different Arab countries, 44 per cent of whom remained within the region. In the same year, there were around 2 million newly internally displaced persons due to natural disasters, and around 1.7 million internally displaced persons due to conflict. The movement of people from rural to urban areas has contributed to the proliferation of megacities in the region, with more than half of the Arab population now living in cities and informal settlements.
Climate change threatens every country in the region to varying degrees. Among the natural disasters triggering displacement in the MENA region, flooding contributed to 58 per cent of the total share of persons displaced by disasters between 2010 and 2019. While floods form a part of the climatic variability observed in the region, warming temperatures triggered by climate change contribute to heavier rainfall, increasing the potential for and severity of flooding. Additionally, climate change has the potential to exacerbate the frequency and intensity of storms, such as cyclones and snowstorms, which have resulted in displacement in some countries in the region such as Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen. Drought is another extreme weather event that widely affects countries in the region. There are also other slow-onset events that are aggravated by climate change. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, for example, face challenges related to freshwater resources. Meanwhile, in Iraq, average temperatures are soaring at a rate that is considerably faster than the global average, and food and water production systems in countries across the Mashreq subregion are being overstretched.
Environmental pressure aggravated by the effects of climate events, such as drought, sea level rise, flash floods and desertification, often acts as a threat multiplier that exacerbates other drivers of migration. It can have implications on agricultural production and livelihoods of rural populations due to shifting and unpredictable rainfall patterns and temperatures. It can also threaten peace and stability in the region, protracting the existing displacement in fragile and conflict-affected countries. Urban expansion, land degradation and competition over increasingly scarce natural resources may also exacerbate conflicts and tensions, leading, in turn, to more displacement and forced migration.
The impacts of climate change adversely affect a wide range of human rights, including the right to life, self-determination, development, health, food, water and sanitation, adequate housing and a range of cultural rights. The negative impact of climate change is disproportionately felt by persons and communities who are already in a disadvantageous situation. Given this challenging context, it is crucial to recognize that migration occurring in a safe, regular and orderly manner can be an effective adaptation strategy to climate change and can help avoid harmful implications for human rights. This highlights the need to support just transitions towards environmentally sustainable economies and societies for all, including those who decide to stay in their place of origin and those who decide to move. States should take meaningful, adequate and sufficient steps as well as various adaptation and mitigation measures to address the human rights impact of climate change, while taking into account the process of migration.