Key Takeaways:
- POLITICS: Sudani Makes Unscheduled Turkey Visit; Sistani Sets Five Priorities For Iraq And UNAMI; Washington Urges Baghdad To Prevent Iranian Attack On Israel From Its Soil – On November 1, PM Sudani made an unscheduled visit to Istanbul where he met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and discussed regional developments in the war in Gaza and Lebanon and Israeli attacks on “other countries in the region.” The two sides also discussed bilateral cooperation, particularly with regard to the Development Road project and water management. On November 4, UNAMI chief Mohammed al-Hassan met with Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in Najaf to discuss conditions in Iraq and UNAMI’s work in the country, which is set to end by the end of 2025. Sistani asked the UNAMI chief to “work hard with the Iraqi government to achieve the priorities” that can preserve Iraq’s stability and serve the interests and rights of its people. Those priorities were identified as meritocracy in senior appointments, preventing all forms of foreign interference, rule of law, state monopoly on violence, and fighting corruption. Commenting on the news, the Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada militia argued that Sistani’s call for state monopoly over violence does not concern the weapons of the “resistance” factions. On November 5, Secretary of State Antony Blinken asked PM Sudani in a phone to fulfill Baghdad’s “commitments to protect U.S. personnel and to pursue those responsible.” Blinken also urged Sudani to “exert control over armed groups launching unauthorized attacks from its territory,” in reference to attacks by Iran-backed Iraqi militias on Israel. According to a report by Axios, Blinken and national security adviser Jake Sullivan have warned Baghdad that it could face Israeli retaliation if it could not prevent a pending joint attack on Israel by the militias and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). During these conversations, the U.S. officials informed Sudani that Washington would not be able to stop Israel from striking back inside Iraq. In other developments, on November 7, parliament decided to extend its current legislative term, which is set to expire on November 9, by 30 days. more…
- SECURITY: Militias Ramp Up Drone Attacks On Israel; Iraq Seeks Security Cooperation Agreements With Saudi Arabia And Qatar – Between November 1 – 7, the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq,” a front group for Iran-backed Iraqi militias, claimed that it conducted at least 22 new attacks with explosive drones against targets in various parts of Israel. This represents the largest number of attacks tracked by ISHM in one week since militias stared attacking Israel since October 2023. On November 4, Iraq’s Defense Minister Thabit al-Abbasi visited Riyadh for meetings with his Saudi counterpart, Khalid Bin Salman. The two defense ministers signed an agreement on bilateral security cooperation dealing with training activities, joint military exercises, and the treatment of wounded Iraqi soldiers in Saudi hospitals. Abbasi also traveled to Qatar, where he discussed bilateral cooperation in the same areas with his Qatari counterpart, Khalid Bin Mohammed al-Attiyah, and the two sides agreed to start drafting an agreement for security cooperation between Iraq and Qatar. more…
- HUMANITARIAN & HUMAN RIGHTS: Number Of Returning IDPs Living In “High Severity” Conditions Drops; Lebanese Arrivals Continue Averaging 700/Day – On November 5, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) provided new data on the conditions facing internally displaced persons (IDPs) who had returned to their home districts as of the end of August 2024. The update shows that a total of 25,212 individuals returned to their districts between April and August, bringing the total returnee population to 4,897,128. The data show that more than 594,000 people are living in what qualifies as “high severity” conditions based on 16 indicators related to livelihoods, basic services, safety, and social cohesion. The number represents a decrease of about 31,300 people living in high severity conditions between April and August. Most of the returnees living in high severity areas are located in Ninewa (259,362), Salah ad-Din (216,840), Anbar (57,558), and Diyala (49,590). Ninewa accounted for the largest decrease in returnees living in poor conditions, while the data shows that conditions for returnee deteriorated in Salah ad-Din. On November 6, the UNHCR reported that the number of Lebanese nationals who have arrived in Iraq after being displaced by fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has grown to nearly 31,000. The figure represents an increase of nearly 5,500 new arrivals since last week. The displaced Lebanese are arriving at a rate averaging 700 per day, primarily through al-Qaim border crossing with Syria and Baghdad airport. In other developments, between November 5 – 7, Iraq’s Ministry for Migration and the Displaced said that 693 IDPs returned to their home district of Sinjar from the Mam Rashan IDP camp in Duhok province. more…
- ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Budget Law Changes Offer Kurdistan Higher Oil Production And Transportation Cost Repayment Limits – On November 5, Iraq’s Council of Ministers proposed new amendments to article 12 of the 2023 federal budget law that deals with settling the production and transportation costs of oil in the Kurdistan region. The contested issue has long impeded the implementation of federal budget laws and prevented the resumption of oil exports via the Iraq-Turkey oil export pipeline. The proposed amendments, once approved by parliament, require the KRG to immediately start delivering its oil to the federal government. In return, as an interim arrangement, the latter would compensate the KRG for oil costs at the rate of $16 per barrel. Afterwards, the two sides would have 60 days to jointly hire an international consultant to calculate “the fair cost of production and transportation for each field separately.” The KRG and oil companies in Kurdistan often argue that their production and transportation costs are higher than those in southern Iraq and refuse to accept the cost recovery cap set in the 2023 budget law. In other developments, on November 3, Iraq’s Water Resources Ministry said it was working to contain a large oil spill that was being carried by flood water downstream from the Baiji refinery following heavy rainfall. On November 5, the Iraqi government issued new instructions concerning plans to conduct the national population census, several of which appear to address Kurdish demands and sensitivities associated with population movements within disputed territories. Among other points, the census in disputed areas will be conducted by joint teams representing Arab, Kurdish, Turkmen, and Christian communities. Authorities will also cross-check data from the interior, trade, and migration ministries against the census results in the disputed territories and prepare statistical reports about displacement to and from disputed territories and other population movements based on official records. more…
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For more background on most of the institutions, key actors, political parties, and locations mentioned in our takeaways or in the stories that follow, see the ISHM Reference Guide.