Key Takeaways:
- POLITICS: Major Fraud Scheme Trials Concluded; Sudani Visits Spain; Iraqi Leaders Concerned Over Syrian Rebel Advances; New Kurdistan Parliament Sworn In – On November 25, an Iraqi court convicted key suspects involved in the theft of $2.5 billion from government accounts, infamously known as the “heist of the century.” The primary suspect, Nour Zuheir, received a ten-year prison sentence, while others were sentenced to three to six years. These relatively lenient sentences were issued in absentia, as Zuheir and other suspects fled Iraq. The verdicts conclude a high-profile case that has captivated public attention for two years. On November 28, Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani and his Interior, Foreign, Trade, and Transportation ministers arrived in Madrid for talks with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and King Felipe VI. Iraq and Spain signed seven agreements covering justice, sovereign credit, trade, anti-corruption, construction, and security cooperation. On December 2, the Coordination Framework warned that recent Syrian rebel advances in Aleppo and other areas represented “terrorist occupation,” emphasizing that Syria’s security is integral to Iraq’s national security. Prime Minister Sudani consulted regional leaders, including Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian, Jordan’s King Abdullah, and Turkish President Erdogan, about containing threats to regional stability. Sudani assured Erdogan that Iraq would not passively observe these developments, stressing respect for Syria’s sovereignty. Syrian opposition leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani responded with a video message assuring Iraq that the fighting in Syria posed no threat and urging against deploying Iraqi militias to aid Assad. Meanwhile, the newly elected Kurdistan Regional Parliament held its first session on December 2. The session adjourned after lawmakers were sworn in, with disputes between major parties over key government positions persisting. The PUK demands either the presidency or premiership. more…
- SECURITY: Militia Attacks on Israel Decline; Iraq Strengthens Syrian Border Defenses as Rebels Gain Ground – Between November 21 and 25, the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq,” an umbrella for Iran-backed militias, conducted two drone attacks on Israel. No further attacks were reported in the following ten days. Despite this lull, the militias vowed on November 27 to continue operations against Israel, despite a recent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. The groups include Kataib Hezbollah, Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, and Ansar Allah al-Awfiya. On December 2, Iraq’s Defense Ministry announced reinforcements along its border with Syria after Syrian opposition forces made significant advances against Assad’s regime, raising fears of extremist resurgences. Deployed units include federal police, army forces, and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). PMF chairman Falih al-Fayyadh denied claims of Iraqi militias entering Syria. Separately, on November 26, Iraq signed a bilateral agreement with the UK to combat drug and human smuggling. more…
- HUMANITARIAN & HUMAN RIGHTS: Government Blocks Popular Platforms; Lebanese Refugees Return Home; Personal Status Law Amendments To Exclude Sunnis – On November 29, Iraq’s Telecommunications Ministry blocked several websites under court and parliamentary orders to ban platforms offering pornographic content. However, the banned list controversially included SoundCloud and IMDb, prompting widespread public criticism. On December 1, Iraq’s Migration Ministry reported that nearly 4,000 Lebanese refugees left Iraq to return home following a November 27 ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. The ministry facilitated these returns, with flights to Beirut resuming. Before the ceasefire, an estimated 41,442 Lebanese refugees were in Iraq. On December 2, Iraq’s parliament again postponed voting on amendments to Personal Status Law No. 188 of 1959. New revisions by the legal committee seek to limit the amendments to Iraq’s Shia community after opposition from Sunni lawmakers. Meanwhile, Iraq announced plans to send 450,000 tons of wheat to Syria and Lebanon for humanitarian aid. more…
- ECONOMY & ENVIRONMENT: Iraq Publishes Census Results; Oil Smuggling Scheme Exposed – On November 25, Iraq released preliminary results from its November 20 census, reporting a population of 45.4 million, with 6.37 million in the Kurdistan region. Over 70% of Iraqis live in urban areas, while children under 15 account for 36% of the population. On December 3, Reuters revealed a large-scale oil smuggling operation generating over $1 billion annually for Iran and its allied militias. The smuggling takes advantage of steep subsidies to fuel oil allocated to asphalt plants, some of which exaggerate their needs, while other are simply fictitious. As much as 750,000 metric tons are being fraudulently redirected each month for sale to customers abroad. In some cases, Iranian fuel oil is blended with Iraq’s to be sold as a fully Iraqi product to bypass sanctions. In other cases, forged documents disguise Iraqi fuel as industrial byproducts that can be legitimately exported. Intelligence reports implicated Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Hezbollah in the scheme. In other developments, Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity reported losing 5,500 megawatts from the power grid due to halted Iranian gas imports. On November 26, Iraq selected Vodafone to operate its national cellphone provider with 5G technology. Additionally, October oil exports averaged 3.327 million barrels per day, up slightly from September. more…
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For more background on most of the institutions, key actors, political parties, and locations mentioned in our takeaways or in the stories that follow, see the ISHM Reference Guide.