Key Takeaways:
- POLITICS: Sudani Recalls Divisive PMF Bill as Disagreements Continue; Major Parties Aim to Keep Existing Election Law Unchanged – On March 11, Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani withdrew the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) Service and Retirement bill from parliament to prevent ongoing disagreements from stalling legislative proceedings. The move follows threats from the State of Law and Sadiqoun blocs—led by Nouri al-Maliki and Qais al-Khazali, respectively—to boycott parliament unless a vote on the bill was scheduled. The key dispute centers on a controversial provision allowing the prime minister to extend the retirement age for senior PMF commanders, including Chairman Falih al-Fayyadh, by five years. Reports indicate a division within the Coordination Framework (CF), with one faction, led by Hadi al-Amiri, favoring the law’s passage to keep Fayyadh in office, while another, led by Maliki and Khazali, supports the bill even if it results in Fayyadh’s departure. On March 13, political sources told Shafaq that major CF parties support maintaining the current election law for the next legislative elections, expected in October. Sunni and Kurdish parties have also shown little interest in amending the law, which was passed in March 2023. This law, used in the December 2023 provincial elections, reinstated the modified Sainte-Laguë system of proportional representation and treated each province as a single electoral district. Meanwhile, on March 12, Kurdistan24 reported that Sudani appointed Nawfal Abu Raghief as head of the Communications and Media Commission (CMC). more…
- SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Armed Faction Targets Syrian Nationals in Iraq; Aid Cuts Force Closure of Program Supporting Torture Victims – On March 10, Iraqi authorities deployed additional riot police around the Syrian embassy in Baghdad to prevent potential protests or violence targeting the facility. The precautionary measure follows reports of widespread violence in Syria’s coastal towns, which UN human rights officials said involved sectarian killings targeting Syrian Alawites. Iraqi security forces arrested at least six individuals attempting to bypass security near the embassy. Meanwhile, an obscure paramilitary group called “Tashkeelat Ya Ali” harassed and assaulted Syrian laborers at their workplaces, as seen in circulating footage. The masked assailants reportedly demanded identification and checked cell phones for sectarian affiliations or ties to Syria’s ruling factions. In response, Sudani ordered an investigation and vowed to hold the perpetrators accountable. The Syrian Foreign Ministry condemned the attacks as violations of human rights and international law, urging Iraq to protect Syrian nationals residing in the country. On March 11, the UN human rights office reported that the U.S. government had ended funding for projects in several countries, including Iraq. One affected initiative provides assistance to victims of torture and families of forcibly disappeared persons. A UN spokesperson confirmed the project’s imminent shutdown. Iraq’s National Security Adviser and Foreign Minister convened a meeting with senior security, humanitarian, and migration officials to assess the impact of the funding cuts. The Iraqi government announced plans to ask Washington to reconsider its decision. On March 13, two land mines exploded in remote areas of Erbil and Diyala provinces, killing one civilian and injuring three others, including an Iraqi border guard. more…
- ECONOMY & CLIMATE: U.S. Partially Revokes Sanctions Waiver for Iraq’s Energy Imports from Iran; New Financial Dispute Blocks Deal on Kurdistan Oil Exports – On March 8, the U.S. government revoked a sanctions waiver that previously allowed Iraq to purchase electricity from Iran, part of a broader effort to revive the “maximum pressure” policy on Tehran. However, Iraq can still import Iranian natural gas under an existing waiver. Iraqi officials estimate that imports from Iran account for 8,000 megawatts of available power, with natural gas contributing the majority. On March 10, new details emerged about financial disagreements that have stalled the resumption of oil exports from Kurdistan via Turkey. In addition to disputes over arrears owed to oil companies from late 2022 to March 2023, a new conflict has arisen over production cost recovery for oil allocated to domestic refineries rather than exports. Under an agreement reached in February, Kurdistan was to supply 185,000 barrels per day (bpd) for export, while the remaining 115,000 bpd of the region’s production would be used domestically. However, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is now demanding production cost compensation for the full 300,000 bpd, while federal officials argue that compensation should apply only to the exported portion. The dispute revolves around a temporary cost recovery rate of $16 per barrel, established in last month’s budget law amendment. more…
For more background on most of the institutions, key actors, political parties, and locations mentioned in our takeaways or in the stories that follow, see the ISHM Reference Guide.