Key Takeaways:
- POLITICS: Sadr Sends Mixed Messages About Elections; Committee Presents Proposal to Amend Election Law; Sudani to Visit Turkey – On March 27, news sites circulated a message attributed to Muqtada al-Sadr in which he urged his followers to refrain from participating in the next election, whether by running as candidates or voting. In the message, notably dated February 15, Sadr reiterated his vow to stay out of a political process dominated by “ethnic, sectarian, and partisan interests.” The message, if authentic, was issued four days before a contradictory February 19 communication in which Sadr encouraged his followers to update their voter registration records. On April 1, the parliamentary legal committee proposed a new amendment to the country’s 2023 election law. The amendments, proposed by committee member Raed al-Maliki of the Coordination Framework, would designate each province as a single electoral district, except for Baghdad, Basra, and Mosul, which would be divided into two districts. The amendments propose allocating 30% of seats in each district to candidates who receive the most votes and exceed 1.5% of the total, while 70% of seats would be reserved for party list candidates. Additionally, the quotient used in the “Saint-Laguë” formula of proportional representation would be adjusted to start at 1.5 instead of 1.7. The proposal also includes automatic resignation for any parliament member running for local elections, or any governor or provincial council member running for parliamentary elections. Some lawmakers criticized the proposal, arguing that it complicates calculations and creates ambiguities that could reduce transparency in seat allocations. On April 2, Iraq’s ambassador to Turkey said that Prime Minister Sudani is planning to visit Turkey within days to discuss the Development Road project and partnerships in trade, transportation, and energy. In other developments, on April 1, Sudani spoke on the phone with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa to exchange Eid al-Fitr greetings. During the call, the first direct contact between the two, Sudani expressed support for an inclusive political process in Syria and underscored Iraq’s interest in economic cooperation and joint action against ISIS. more…
- SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Terrorism Motive Suspected Behind Axe Attack on Assyrian Holiday Parade in Duhok – On April 1, an axe-wielding individual attacked a parade of Iraqi Christians celebrating the Akitu holiday, which marks the Assyrian New Year, in the city of Duhok. Two victims, a young man and a woman in her 70s, were taken to the hospital for treatment after sustaining serious head wounds. The Kurdistan region’s security council said initial information suggests that the attacker, who was apprehended immediately after the attack, is a Syrian national who has endorsed “the terrorist ideology of Daesh.” In other developments, on March 28, Iraqi F-16 jets killed at least two ISIS militants in an airstrike on their hideout in Anbar province. The airstrike produced secondary explosions, indicating it hit weapon stores. On April 1, an old land mine detonated in the Sedikan subdistrict of Erbil, killing a local man. On April 2, Iraqi authorities repatriated 681 Iraqi nationals comprising 168 households from al-Hol camp in northeastern Syria. On April 3, the Popular Mobilization Forces said they deployed anti-tank weapon squads along the border with Syria to enhance the defensive capabilities of units in this sector. more…
- ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Oil Companies in Kurdistan Say Baghdad Negotiates in Bad Faith; Oil Refining Capacity to Exceed 1.5 Million BPD – On March 28, the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (APIKUR) said its members have determined that Iraq’s Oil Ministry is “unwilling to negotiate a solution that honors [the companies’] contract sanctity and is attempting to…unilaterally alter the economic framework” of their contracts with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The oil companies said the Oil Ministry’s actions were “not acceptable,” adding that they will not resume exports via Turkey “until there is commitment… to honor our contracts, including payment surety for past and future exports.” Trilateral negotiations between the companies, KRG, and federal authorities aimed at restarting the exports, which have been halted for two years, have faltered despite a February agreement between the KRG and Baghdad to resume oil exports at an initial rate of 185,000 bpd. On March 30, the Iraqi government said that its oil refining capacity is on track to reach a new high of 1.542 million bpd before the end of the year. The announcement was made by Prime Minister Sudani while attending a cornerstone ceremony for a long-delayed project to expand the Maysan oil refinery. The project, along with a similar one in the Baiji refinery complex, is expected to add 140,000 bpd in refining capacity within the next 6–8 months. In other developments, on March 29, Sudani indicated that his government has authorized the Oil Ministry to extend an existing fuel oil supply deal with Lebanon for an additional six months. more…
For more background on most of the institutions, key actors, political parties, and locations mentioned in our takeaways or in the stories that follow, see the ISHM Reference Guide.