Key Takeaways:
- POLITICS: Maliki Closer to a Third Term After Sudani Steps Aside; Trump’s Envoy Threatens More Sanctions Against “Malign Actors” in Iraq – On January 12, caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani withdrew from the race to become the Coordination Framework’s (CF) nominee to form the next cabinet, members of his Reconstruction and Development Coalition (RDC) said. The move, which favored his main rival, former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, followed CF’s failure to choose between the two candidates and its decision to leave the matter to them. RDC members said the aim was to limit CF’s options to Maliki and Sudani and block the emergence of compromise candidates. While the withdrawal positions Maliki as the frontrunner, his path remains uncertain. Sudani’s exit was conditional on Maliki securing unanimous backing from all CF factions and approval from Iraq’s top Shia cleric, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. Political sources also said the two agreed that Maliki would support a renewed Sudani bid if Maliki fails to secure sufficient support. Some analysts view Sudani’s move as a tactical withdrawal designed to expose Maliki’s weaknesses and ultimately position Sudani as the only viable option. Sources say the move surprised other CF leaders and left them balancing ties with Maliki against concerns over granting him a third term, given his autocratic and divisive record during his second term (2010–2014). CF has not publicly endorsed Maliki, noting that a final decision will depend on feedback from Sunni and Kurdish blocs, Najaf’s senior clergy, and external considerations. Seeking to ease U.S. concerns, Maliki told U.S. embassy diplomats on Wednesday that he favors stronger bilateral relations and prioritizes establishing a state monopoly over arms. On January 14, Mark Savaya, President Trump’s special envoy for Iraq, said he met with senior Treasury Department officials to discuss additional sanctions targeting “malign actors and networks that undermine financial integrity and state authority” in Iraq. Savaya said he and OFAC (the Office of Foreign Assets Control) agreed to conduct a thorough investigation of suspicious financial transactions involving Iraqi individuals and entities linked to “smuggling, money laundering, and fraudulent financial contracts and projects that finance and enable terrorist activities.” In other developments, on January 14, Shaswar Abdulwahid, head of the New Generation opposition party, was released on bail after spending nearly six months in prison. more…
- SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Militia Pledges to Defend Iran in Case of U.S. Attack; 7,000 Syrian Refugees Left Iraq in 2025 – On January 12, the Kataib Hezbollah (KH) militia warned it would take action in defense of Iran in the event of a U.S. attack on the Islamic Republic. In a statement, KH leader Ahmed al-Hamidawi cautioned that an attack on Iran would “start a fire that could not be extinguished.” The warning came as President Donald Trump said his administration was considering military intervention in Iran, where large-scale anti-regime protests since late December have been met with deadly force by the government. On January 15, the UN refugee agency (UNHCR) said Syrian refugees continued to account for 88% of the 348,600 refugees and asylum seekers in Iraq at the end of 2025. Only about 7,000 Syrian refugees returned home during the year. Returns peaked between June and August—more than 1,800 in July alone—but fell to fewer than 190 in December. In other developments, on January 12, the Dhi-Qar Criminal Court ordered the release of two individuals convicted and sentenced to death in 2023 for the kidnapping and enforced disappearance of activist Sajjad al-Iraqi in September 2020. In a retrial, the court found insufficient evidence to uphold the convictions. Sajjad’s brother condemned the ruling and alleged that several witnesses had retracted their testimonies after facing threats and intimidation from powerful actors. On January 14, an Iraqi court sentenced Wathiq Jafar Shawi—also known as Wathiq al-Battat, leader of the obscure armed group Jaysh al-Mukhtar—to three years in prison. Shawi was arrested in December after making derogatory remarks about the Popular Mobilization Forces during a televised interview. more…
- ECONOMY & CLIMATE: No End in Sight for Iranian Gas Halt; Schlumberger Begins Drilling at Akkaz; Iraq to Add 57 Gigawatts by 2031 – On January 12, Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity said Iran had indicated there was no specific timeline for restoring natural gas supplies to Iraq. Iran’s inability to resume exports—halted since December 23—is linked to an emergency situation at the source, the details of which remain unclear. The loss of Iranian fuel reduced electricity output by 4,500 megawatts after several power plants went offline. On January 13, drilling operations formally began at the Akkaz gas field in Anbar province, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said. The first phase involves drilling five production wells and one exploration well, and building a central processing facility, with a target of producing 100 million cubic feet of gas per day (MMcf/d) before year’s end. The launch comes six months after Iraq signed a development contract with Schlumberger. Iraq ultimately aims to produce 400 MMcf/d from Akkaz, up from current output of 40 MMcf/d. On January 14, the Ministry of Electricity said its new five-year plan calls for adding 57,000 megawatts of generation capacity by 2031, on top of current output of nearly 18,700 megawatts. The increase hinges on three major contracts: 24,000 megawatts with General Electric, 15,000 megawatts with Siemens, and 11,000 megawatts with Shanghai Electric, with the remainder coming from renewables and combined-cycle upgrades. A ministry spokesperson said the plan was “not a luxury,” but intended to address “a pressing need to cope with constant demand growth.” more…
For more background on most of the institutions, key actors, political parties, and locations mentioned in our takeaways or in the stories that follow, see the ISHM Reference Guide.
POLITICS: Maliki Closer to a Third Term After Sudani Steps Aside; Trump’s Envoy Threatens More Sanctions Against “Malign Actors” in Iraq
On January 12, caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani, whose Reconstruction and Development Coalition (RDC) won the most seats in the November election, ended his bid to become the Coordination Framework’s candidate to lead the next cabinet, a spokesman for RDC said. The decision to step out of the competition in favor of Sudani’s main rival, former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, came after the Coordination Framework was unable to choose between the two top contenders, Maliki and Sudani, and left it to them to decide. Ultimately, the decision was made collectively by RDC’s leaders and members to end the deadlock over nominating the next prime minister and “elevate Iraq’s higher interests above narrow partisan ones,” spokesman Firas al-Mislimawi explained. Another RDC member said the goal was to narrow the choice of candidates available to the Framework to just Maliki and Sudani and preclude the rise of compromise candidates. While Sudani’s move places Maliki as the frontrunner for leading the next government, the path ahead for the two-time former prime minister is not without obstacles. Sudani’s withdrawal in favor of Maliki was made conditional on Maliki’s ability to win the unanimous endorsement of all Coordination Framework factions, as well as a green light from Iraq’s top Shia cleric, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, according to RDC members. Political sources told al-Aalem al-Jadeed that the understanding between Maliki and Sudani also stipulates that Maliki should support a renewed bid by Sudani to become the Framework’s candidate in case Maliki fails to win the necessary support. Some analyses argue that Sudani’s move was a tactical withdrawal designed to expose Maliki’s weaknesses as a candidate [his disastrous second term in office ended with ISIS occupying a third of Iraq] and ultimately present Sudani as the only viable candidate for the job. Political sources suggest the move took other Framework leaders by surprise and put them in a tough position, forcing them to balance their relations with Maliki against concerns over entrusting him with a third term in office given his history with autocratic and divisive policies. As of reporting, the Coordination Framework has not publicly embraced Maliki as its candidate, with members of the bloc noting that the final decision will be guided by feedback from Sunni and Kurdish political blocs, the senior clergy of Najaf, as well as regional and international considerations. In an apparent attempt to allay U.S. concerns about a potential third term, Maliki told U.S. embassy diplomats on Wednesday that he wants stronger bilateral relations and considers establishing state monopoly over arms a key priority for stability.
On January 14, a court in Sulaymaniyah announced that Shaswar Abdulwahid, the head of the New Generation opposition party, was released from prison on bail after spending nearly six months in custody. In September of last year, Abdulwahid was sentenced to five months in prison after he was found guilty of blackmailing a former member of his party, and was also facing additional charges of defamation and financial crimes. Police had arrested Abdulwahid from his residence on August 12 on an arrest warrant citing article 431 of the Iraqi penal code, which deals with threats, a police spokesman said at the time.
On January 14, Mark Savaya, President Trump’s special envoy for Iraq said he met with senior Treasury Department officials to discuss additional sanctions targeting “malign actors and networks that undermine financial integrity and state authority” in Iraq. In a statement on social media, Savaya said he and OFAC (the Office of Foreign Assets Control) agreed to conduct a thorough investigation of suspicious financial transactions Iraqi individuals and entities with links to “smuggling, money laundering, and fraudulent financial contracts and projects that finance and enable terrorist activities.” Savaya did not mention specific individuals or entities that could come under new sanctions.
Sources cited in this section include: Rudaw, Shafaq, Ultra Iraq, al-Aalem al-Jadeed, the National Context, Iraq Observer, Kurdistan24, social media, ISHM archive.
SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Militia Pledges to Defend Iran in Case of U.S. Attack; 7,000 Syrian Refugees Left Iraq in 2025
On January 12, the Dhi-Qar Criminal Court ordered the release of two individuals who had been convicted and sentenced to death in 2023 for the kidnapping and enforced disappearance of activist Sajjad al-Iraqi in September 2020. In a retrial, the court found insufficient evidence to uphold the convictions of the defendants, Idris Kurdi Hamdan and Ahmed Mahmoud Abdullah, according to court sources. Sajjad’s brother condemned the ruling, describing it as the result of partisan and tribal pressures, and alleged that several witnesses had retracted their testimonies after facing threats and intimidation from powerful parties. The activist’s family said it plans to appeal the decision.
On January 12, the Kataib Hezbollah (KH) militia warned that it will take action in defense of Iran in case of any future attack by the United States on the Islamic Republic. In a statement, KH leader Ahmed al-Hamidawi cautioned that an attack on Iran would “start a fire that could not be extinguished,” adding that the “religious and moral duty compels the mujahideen to stand with all their strength alongside the Iranian people.” The warning comes as President Donald Trump said his administration was considering military intervention in Iran, where large-scale anti-regime protests have since late December are being met with deadly force from the government.
On January 13, Iraq’s Interior Ministry said its forces arrested nine individuals who claimed to be members of the Saraya al-Salam militia of Muqtada al-Sadr. The arrests took place after the gunmen reportedly assaulted workers at a gas station in al-Shaab neighborhood of northeastern Baghdad and later opened fire on security forces that responded to the incident. There were no reports of casualties on either side as a result of the incident. In response, Muqtada al-Sadr instructed his lieutenants to discharge 12 members of Saray al-Salam who were ostensibly involved in the gas station assault and clashes with security forces.
On January 14, an Iraqi court sentenced the leader of an armed faction to three years in prison after convicting him of insulting the Iraqi armed forces, an offense punishable by imprisonment under Iraqi law. The defendant, Wathiq Jafar Shawi, also known as Wathiq al-Battat, leads an obscure armed group known as Jaysh al-Mukhtar (the “Chosen Army”). He was arrested in December after making derogatory remarks about the Popular Mobilization Forces during a televised interview.
On January 15, the United Nations refugee agency (UNHCR) said that Syrian refugees continued to represent 88% of the 348,600 refugees and asylum seekers that were in Iraq at the end of 2025. A large majority of this population (80%) were in the Kurdistan region. The update points out that nearly a third of the refugee population lives in nine camps spread across the country, while the majority were staying in urban or semi-urban settings. Only about 7,000 Syrian refugees returned home during all of 2025. The return movement peaked between June and August (with more than 1,800 returning in July alone) before dropping in later months. In December, fewer than 190 registered Syrian refugees and asylum-seekers returned from Iraq to Syria.
Sources cited in this section include: Shafaq, Amnesty International, Reliefweb, al-Mada, al-Jazeera, Ultra Iraq, al-Sumaria, Iraq Observer.
ECONOMY & CLIMATE: No End in Sight for Iranian Gas Halt; Schlumberger Begins Drilling at Akkaz; Iraq to Add 57 Gigawatts by 2031
On January 10, Iraqi officials said that a recent government decision that placed the Basra Oil Company in charge of operations at the West Qurna-2 oil field in Basra did not mean the nationalization of Lukoil’s interest in the field. In a statement, the Iraqi embassy in Moscow explained that Lukoil, which was compelled to declare force majeure at West Quran-2 in November as a result of U.S. sanctions, has a year to reassign its rights and interest in the field to third parties in accordance with its 2009 service contract. The statement noted that the field itself was and continues to be fully owned by the state of Iraq – a concept that is enshrined in the country’s constitution.
On January 12, Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity said Iran had indicated there was no specific timeline for restoring natural gas supplies to Iraq. Iran’s inability to resume exports—halted since December 23—is linked to an emergency situation at the source, the details of which remain unclear, according to a spokesman for the Iraqi Electricity Ministry. The loss of Iranian fuel led to a reduction of 4,500 megawatts of electricity after several power plants went offline, Iraqi officials said in December.
On January 13, drilling operations formally commenced at the Akkaz gas field in Anbar province, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said in a statement. The first stage of the field’s development involves drilling five production wells, a single exploration well, and building a central processing facility with the goal of producing 100 million cubic feet of gas per day (MMcf/d) before the end of this year, according to Deputy Oil Minister for Gas Izzat Sabir. The launch of drilling operations comes six months after Iraq signed a contract with global energy service company Schlumberger to develop Akkaz. Iraq ultimately seeks to produce 400 MMcf/d from the field, up from current production of 40 MMcf/d. Gas from Akkaz will be delivered to a new gas-fired combined cycle power plant with a total capacity of 1,600 megawatts.
On January 14, Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity said that its new five year plan calls for adding 57,000 megawatts of power generation capacity by 2031 on top of current output of nearly 18,700 megawatts. This targeted increase hinges on the execution of three major contracts to expand installed capacity: with General Electric to add 24,000 megawatts, with Siemens to add 15,000 megawatts, and with Shanghai Electric to add another 11,000 megawatts. The balance will come from renewables and combined cycle upgrades, ministry spokesman Ahmed Mousa said. Mousa stressed that this ambitious expansion plan was “not a luxury” but is meant to address “a pressing need to cope with constant demand increase.”
Sources cited in this section include: al-Sumaria, ISHM archive, INA, Shafaq, Iraq Observer, Zawya.
Derived from firsthand accounts and Iraq-based Arabic and Kurdish news sources, the Iraq Security and Humanitarian Monitor is a free publication of the Enabling Peace in Iraq Center.