Key Takeaways:
- POLITICS: Militia Threats Derail Nascent Diplomacy with Syria; Iraq Welcomes Fragile PKK Ceasefire Announcement – On February 27, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said that Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani postponed an anticipated visit to Baghdad because of “a campaign on social media” that expressed negative views about the visit. Meanwhile, news reports said that Iran-backed militias have made threats to assassinate Shaibani or Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, if either were to set foot in Baghdad. Publicly, former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a powerful figure in the Coordination Framework, said during a televised interview that Sharaa was not welcome in Baghdad. Shaibani was scheduled to visit Baghdad in late February to discuss Syria’s possible participation in the Arab League summit meeting that Baghdad is expected to host in May. On February 28, Iraq’s Foreign Affairs Ministry welcomed a call by Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), for the group to lay down its arms and dissolve itself. The ministry said Ocalan’s call was “an extremely important step towards security, not just in Iraq, where armed members of the party are present…but in the whole region.” Meanwhile, Turkish government officials have called for the dissolution not just of the PKK itself, but also of all armed groups affiliated with the PKK in Iraq and Syria, which Turkey accuses of being extensions of the terror-designated PKK. The PKK responded by announcing a ceasefire while declaring that disarming is a decision that requires Ocalan’s presence at a future congress. However, reports on Tuesday night indicated fresh clashes between the PKK and the Turkish military in northern Iraq, with Turkey claiming to have killed 26 PKK fighters this week. In other developments, on March 2, the Court of Administrative Law revoked a decision by the Dhi-Qar provincial council to sack Governor Murthadha al-Ibrahimi. On March 2, Asaib Ahl al-Haq leader Qais al-Khazali said that the political wing of his group plans to compete in the country’s next parliamentary election with its own list of candidates, separate from the Coordination Framework coalition. On March 5, the provincial council in Ninewa voted to sack its chairman, Ahmed al-Hasoud. more…
- SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Yazidi Peshmerga Brigade Breaks Away from the KRG; Loss of U.S. Funding Disrupts Return of Iraqis from Al-Hol – On March 1, officers from the 4th Peshmerga Brigade, a Sinjar-based unit comprising Yazidi fighters, announced their unit’s separation from KRG authorities. Speaking to reporters in Baghdad, the officers called on Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani to integrate them into the federal government’s security forces. The officers accused the KRG of violating their rights and depriving their unit of financial and administrative entitlements, without offering specifics. A military judge in the Kurdistan region said the move was an act of mutiny that should be prosecuted in a court-martial. On March 5, Iraq’s Ministry for Migration and the Displaced said the repatriation of Iraqi nationals from Al-Hol camp in northeast Syria will be paused for a period of 4–6 months. A ministry spokesman explained that the pause is needed to allow authorities at Al-Jedaa camp in Ninewa to finish rehabilitating hundreds of former Al-Hol residents who recently returned to Iraq. In remarks made on the same day, Iraq’s national security adviser, Qasim al-Araji, indicated that the loss of U.S. assistance funds was disrupting Iraq’s plans to repatriate all of its citizens from Al-Hol by the end of 2025. Speaking at a meeting to discuss the impact of aid cuts, Araji noted that the lack of U.S. assistance has disrupted the work of aid organizations active in Syria, warning that “Iraq cannot solve this issue alone.” Iraqi authorities take families returning from Al-Hol—most of whom have perceived ties to ISIS—to Al-Jedaa to undergo vetting and rehabilitation before they can return to their home districts. According to the spokesman, more than 15,000 Iraqis remain at Al-Hol. In other developments, two explosions on March 1–2 in Dhi-Qar and Sulaymaniyah killed two children and wounded another child. more…
- ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Iraq Builds Pipeline to Import Natural Gas; Halliburton in Negotiations to Develop Bin Omar Oil Field; Financial Disagreements Block Restart of Kurdistan Oil Exports – On March 4, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said it began building a 40-kilometer gas pipeline to transport natural gas from a planned gas platform at the Khor al-Zubeir port to the national distribution grid near Basra. According to Oil Minister Hayan Abdulghani, the ministry plans to install a floating gas offloading platform to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) to supply the country’s power plants. Construction on the 42-inch pipeline began in late February and is expected to take 120 days. The pipeline construction comes amid mounting concerns in Iraq about an imminent revocation of U.S. sanctions waivers that have allowed Iraq to purchase natural gas and electricity from Iran. On March 5, a senior Iraqi Oil Ministry official said negotiations were underway with Halliburton to develop oil resources at the Nahr Bin Omar oil field in Basra. The official noted that the development of the field’s gas and oil resources is being handled separately, citing a contract for gas development that was awarded to a local company last year. On March 6, a trilateral meeting between oil companies operating in the Kurdistan region and federal and KRG oil officials ended without an agreement to resume oil exports via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, which has been halted since March 2023. An Iraqi Oil Ministry official told reporters that “the problems remain unchanged, and no tangible progress was achieved.” A spokesman for the oil companies said they demand more transparency in payments and to be treated the same as oil companies operating elsewhere in the country in terms of regular and predictable payments for the oil they produce. Disagreements over financial issues—reportedly including arrears owed to the oil companies from 2022–2023—continue to prevent the resumption of exports, even as Turkey reiterated its readiness to receive the oil this week. The deadlock comes two weeks after the KRG Ministry of Natural Resources reached an agreement with Iraq’s federal Oil Ministry to resume oil exports at an initial rate of 185,000 bpd. more…
For more background on most of the institutions, key actors, political parties, and locations mentioned in our takeaways or in the stories that follow, see the ISHM Reference Guide.