Key Takeaways:
- POLITICS: Cabinet Sends New PMF Bill to Parliament; Former PM Kadhimi Holds Talks in Baghdad; Rubio Pushes Sudani to Counter Iran’s Influence – On February 25, the Iraqi government approved a new draft of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) Service and Retirement Law and sent it to parliament for a vote. This comes a week after the leaders of the Coordination Framework (CF) agreed on a revised draft, which reportedly allows the Prime Minister to extend the retirement age for senior PMF commanders, including Chairman Falih al-Fayyadh, by five years. Senior CF leaders have reportedly been divided on the issue, with one camp, led by Hadi al-Amiri, favoring the law’s passage in a way that allows Fayyadh to remain in office, while another camp, led by Qais al-Khazali and Nouri al-Maliki, wants to pass the law even if it results in Fayyadh’s removal. On February 25, former PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi visited Baghdad for the first time since leaving office in October 2022. Sources close to Kadhimi said he was invited by “current Iraqi political leaders who hope he can use his connections to help them address a worsening economic crisis.” A former lawmaker said the visit had two additional purposes: discussing the formation of a new political party and clearing his name, as well as defending some of his aides who have been accused in connection with the infamous “heist of the century” scandal. Kadhimi’s first public appearance was on Thursday when he met with Ammar al-Hakim and later with veteran politician Iyad Allawi. On February 25, the U.S. State Department said Senator Marco Rubio spoke on the phone with PM Sudani to discuss “the U.S.-Iraq strategic partnership and the importance of Iraq’s stability and sovereignty.” The two sides also discussed “reducing Iran’s malign influence and continuing efforts to prevent ISIS from resurging.” The conversation additionally covered energy and investment relations, specifically “the need for Iraq to become energy independent, to quickly reopen the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline, and to honor contractual terms for U.S. companies working in Iraq.” more…
- SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Iraq Proposes New Security Agreement with Washington – On February 25, Iraq’s Defense Minister Thabit al-Abbasi said the Iraqi government has presented a new security agreement proposal to the U.S. administration. Speaking to reporters, Abbasi said the proposal focuses on establishing a lasting security partnership and extensive intelligence cooperation. However, he did not provide specifics on the proposal, when it was made, or how it relates to existing agreements between Washington and Baghdad. Abbasi noted that prisons and camps holding ISIS fighters and civilians with perceived ties to ISIS remain a major concern for Baghdad. He added that Iraq supports the continued U.S. military presence in eastern Syria until either a capable national Syrian army is created, or Iraq makes the necessary arrangements with the Syrian Democratic Forces. The proposed agreement is currently under consideration in Washington, according to the Iraqi minister. In other developments, between February 23 and 25, two improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and one remnant of war exploded in Kirkuk, Diyala, and Sulaymaniyah, killing a nine-year-old boy and wounding an Iraqi army officer. more…
- ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Oil Exports from Kurdistan to Resume at 185,000 bpd; Iraq Releases New Census Data; BP Signs Final Agreement to Redevelop Kirkuk Oil Fields – On February 23, the KRG Ministry of Natural Resources announced that it had reached an agreement with Iraq’s federal Oil Ministry to resume oil exports via the Iraq-Türkiye pipeline “based on available volumes.” The two sides have also formed a joint technical team to confirm the pipeline’s operational readiness. Initially, the Oil Ministry will receive 185,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil for export from its KRG counterpart, while the remainder of the region’s 300,000 bpd oil production will be used domestically. Oil Minister Hayan Abdulghani said exports could commence “within two days” pending Turkey’s approval. On February 24, Iraq’s Planning Ministry released new data from last November’s population census. The data put Iraq’s population at 46.1 million, a revision from the earlier preliminary estimate of 45.4 million. The new data covers several key areas, including literacy, poverty, average income and spending, workforce statistics, and access to water, electricity, and sanitation. On February 26, Iraq’s North Oil Company and BP signed a long-anticipated agreement for the redevelopment of four oil fields in Kirkuk. The agreement covers the Avana and Baba domes of the Kirkuk field, as well as the nearby Khabbaz, Jambur, and Bai Hassan fields. Iraq’s Oil Minister said the deal aims to increase the fields’ output to 450,000 bpd. The agreement also includes provisions for capturing 400 million cubic feet per day of associated natural gas, expanding gas processing facilities, and constructing a 400-megawatt power plant. In other developments, on February 25, Iraq’s Ministry of Construction and Housing announced plans to launch a project, funded by UK Export Finance (UKEF) loans, to collect, process, and reuse irrigation drainage water across several provinces in central and southern Iraq. On February 27, Iraq’s Oil Ministry reported that oil exports in January averaged 3.33 million bpd, an increase of approximately 75,000 bpd from December. more…
For more background on most of the institutions, key actors, political parties, and locations mentioned in our takeaways or in the stories that follow, see the ISHM Reference Guide.