Key Takeaways:
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Coordination Framework To Resume Government Formation Efforts Following Sadr’s Chaotic “Retirement” From Politics; Kadhimi Threatens To Step Down – On August 29, Muqtada al-Sadr announced his “final retirement” from politics and the closing of “all institutions” associated with his movement. The move came hours after a senior Iran-based cleric, who is considered a religious mentor for the Sadrists, accused Sadr of dividing the Shia community and questioned his eligibility to lead. Sadr’s followers reacted by storming government buildings, sparking deadly clashes that killed dozens and wounded hundreds (more details below). After the violence, the Coordination Framework called for parliament to resume meetings to expedite the formation of a new government that includes “all the political powers that wish to participate.” The statement called for “dialogue to reach an understanding to the country from strife and chaos,” indirectly blaming Sadr’s “thoughtless” decisions for the violence. On August 30, PM Kadhimi addressed the deadly clashes that swept the Green Zone on August 29 – 30, thanking government forces for not taking sides in a fight between “rogue weapons” and other “rogue weapons,” implying that Sadr’s militias and their rivals were equally guilty. Kadhimi insisted that all security forces must answer to the formal chain of command and urged all political stakeholders to make concessions to prevent further escalation that could kill more Iraqis. Importantly, Kadhimi threatened to resign if the quarreling blocs continued to provoke fights and refused to listen to reason. In other developments, on September 1, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court said it will issue its verdict in a case filed by the Sadrists demanding the dissolution of parliament in a future session scheduled for next Wednesday, September 7. more…
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Violent Green Zone, Basra Clashes Kill At Least 34 As Rival Militias Face Off – On August 29, Muqtada al-Sadr’s followers stormed the Republican Palace in Baghdad, sparking clashes with government forces and Iran-backed PMF elements, resulting in casualties on both sides. Despite a nationwide curfew being in place, the violence escalated as armed elements of Sadr’s Saraya al-Salam militia joined the fight at the Green Zone. Over the following hours and into the next day, heavy fighting raged in which rockets, mortars, and RPGs were used, killing at least 30 people and wounding nearly 400. The fighting, which raised fear of an all-out war, began to wind down around midday on August 30, after Sadr told his supporters to withdraw. On August 31, clashes erupted between the Sadr’s militia and Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) in Basra, killing four people form the two sides. The clashes, and a threatening message from the Sadrists, prompted AAH leader Qais al-Khazali to close AAH offices to avoid further escalation. In other developments, between August 26 – 31, the explosions of two IEDs in Baghdad and Diyala killed two Iraqis and wounded six. A third IED during the same period targeted Australian diplomats in Baghdad but did not result in casualties. more…
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KRG Defies Baghdad’s Threat To Punish Its Oil Buyers; KRG Oil Exports May Shrink By Half By 2027; Iraq’s Oil Exports Generated $9.78 Billion In August – On August 26, the KRG Ministry of Natural Resources dismissed a threat by Iraq’s oil marketing company (SOMO) to take legal action against entities buying its crude oil as politicized and “misleading,” and insisted that it will continue to produce and export crude oil despite the threat. On August 30, a report by Reuters raised the alarm about the future of the Kurdistan region’s oil and gas industry amid uncertainty and dwindling investment in reservoir development. The report predicts that without major investments in new wells to compensate for natural decline, exports could drop by almost half to just 240,000 bpd by 2027. On September 1, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said that August crude oil exports averaged 3.286 million bpd, and generated $9.784 billion in revenue, about $800 million lower than the $10.6 billion achieved in July. Iraq sold its crude oil at an average price of $96.05 per barrel, about $7.5 below previous month’s average of $103.6 per barrel. more…
For more background on most of the institutions, key actors, political parties, and locations mentioned in our takeaways or in the stories that follow, see the ISHM Reference Guide.