Key Takeaways:
- POLITICS: Trump Bluntly Warns Iraqi Politicians Against Supporting Another Maliki-Led Government – On January 24, the Coordination Framework (CF) nominated former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki as its candidate for prime minister, though the decision fell short of unanimity. At least four senior CF figures—Qais al-Khazali, Ammar al-Hakim, Haider al-Abadi, and Ahmed al-Asadi—withheld their support. The move comes nearly two weeks after caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani withdrew from the race to form the next cabinet. Maliki’s nomination was welcomed by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), while most Sunni leaders, including Mohammed al-Halbousi, voiced opposition. U.S. President Donald Trump denounced the decision as “a very bad choice,” saying Maliki “should not be allowed” to return to office and warning that the United States would “no longer help Iraq” if the appointment proceeded. Maliki responded defiantly, calling Trump’s remarks “blatant interference” and a “violation of sovereignty,” and pledged to move forward with government formation. Meanwhile, Sudani’s coalition and CF figures who withheld support offered more cautious reactions—rejecting foreign interference while stressing the need to maintain relations with key partners and noting that any prime minister must be broadly “acceptable.” As of Thursday, the CF had issued no formal response to Trump’s comments amid reports of internal divisions. In other developments, on January 27, Iraq’s parliament postponed a session during which lawmakers were scheduled to vote to elect a new president. The request to postpone came from the PUK and KDP as deadlock over presidential candidates continued. On January 27, the Babylon provincial council elected Ali Turki al-Jamali as governor, replacing Adnan Feyhan, who was elected in December as first deputy speaker of parliament. more…
- SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Iraqi Intelligence Chief Says ISIS Ranks Increased Fivefold; Iraq Receives More ISIS Prisoners from Syria – On January 26, the director of Iraq’s National Intelligence Service (INIS), Hamid al-Shatri, told The Washington Post that the number of ISIS fighters in Syria had increased fivefold in the past year, from 2,000 to 10,000. According to Shatri, the figure includes men who were once loyal to President Ahmed al-Sharaa before defecting from militant groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra and Ansar al-Sunna to join ISIS. Shatri’s estimates are significantly higher than U.S. and UN assessments, which as of last summer put the total number of ISIS fighters across Iraq and Syria at about 3,000. On January 28, Iraqi security officials said that a total of 475 suspected ISIS members had been transferred to Iraq from prisons in Syria as of Tuesday night. All transfers came from the Ghweran prison in Syria’s Hasaka province. Last week, the U.S. military began transferring suspected ISIS members from Syrian prisons to Iraq as part of a plan to relocate up to 7,000 detainees to prevent their escape amid clashes between Syrian government forces and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). As the transfers continued, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Admiral Brad Cooper met with Prime Minister Sudani to discuss the security situation surrounding Syrian prisons holding ISIS members. The talks focused on coordination over timelines and logistical requirements needed to complete the transfers securely. In other developments, on January 26, Iraq warned Russia about reports that young Iraqis were being misled and recruited into the Russian military. Iraqi diplomats told Moscow’s ambassador that Baghdad rejects any foreign enlistment of Iraqi citizens, noting that it is illegal. On January 27, Iraqi security forces arrested a suspected ISIS militant who was planning to attack a restaurant in Ramadi using grenades and a suicide bomber vest. more…
- ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Carlyle Group Poised to Acquire Lukoil’s Stake at West Qurna-2, but Talks with Chevron Continue On January 29, Lukoil said it had reached a deal to sell its assets in 30 countries, including Iraq’s West Qurna-2 oilfield, to the Carlyle Group. The deal, whose value was not disclosed, is conditional on approval by the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). Lukoil said it is still negotiating with other potential buyers, and this week Reuters reported that Chevron remains in talks with Iraq’s Oil Ministry over a possible acquisition of Lukoil’s stake in West Qurna-2. In January, the Iraqi government instructed the Basra Oil Company to take over operations at West Qurna-2 nearly two months after Lukoil declared force majeure in response to newly imposed U.S. sanctions on Russian energy firms. In other developments, on January 25, Iraq’s Oil Marketing Company (SOMO) said crude oil exports averaged 3.472 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, about 81,000 bpd below November levels. Exports generated $6.388 billion in revenue, a drop of roughly $207 million from November. Most exports came from fields in southern and central Iraq, while an average of 193,400 bpd was also exported from fields in the Kurdistan Region via Turkey. more…
For more background on most of the institutions, key actors, political parties, and locations mentioned in our takeaways or in the stories that follow, see the ISHM Reference Guide.
POLITICS: Trump Bluntly Warns Iraqi Politicians Against Supporting Another Maliki-Led Government
On January 24, the Coordination Framework (CF) announced that it agreed to nominate former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to be the next prime minister of Iraq. The announcement comes almost two weeks after caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani withdrew from the race to become the CF nominee to form the next cabinet. Maliki’s nomination did not receive unanimous support from all CF factions. At least four senior CF figures, Qais al-Khazali, Ammar al-Hakim, Haider al-Abadi, and Ahmed al-Asadi, declined to endorse Maliki, CF sources said. Members of Maliki’s own State of Law bloc said that while some parties expressed reservations, there were no outright objections from any Iraqi or foreign parties, including the U.S. and the Najaf clergy. Maliki’s nomination was reportedly supported by Hadi al-Amiri, Humam Hammoudi, caretaker Prime Minister Sudani, Abu Ala al-Walaie, among others. Outside CF, Maliki’s nomination was welcomed by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). Several Sunni political parties, including Mohammed al-Halbousi, Khamis al-Khanjar, and Ahmed al-Jubouri, warned in a joint statement that entrusting Maliki with another term in office risks repeating the failures and crises that characterized his previous term as prime minister, which ended with the rise of ISIS. Halbousi’s Taqaddum Party once again urged CF leaders to pick someone who is “acceptable” to other Iraqi communities. Sunni opposition was not unanimous, as the Azm party of Muthanna al-Samarraie distanced itself from the statement and said it respects the CF decision. The nomination drew strong opposition from Washington. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump called it “a very bad choice” and that Maliki “should not be allowed” to take office again. Trump threatened that the U.S. “will no longer help Iraq” if the Iraqi leaders insisted on appointing Maliki, whose policies and ideologies are “insane” in Trump’s words. Trump’s blunt remarks were reportedly preceded by a warning from the U.S. Charge d’Affaires, Joshua Harris, who cautioned CF leaders that “we recall the period of previous governments headed by Prime Minister Maliki negatively in Washington.” Maliki responded with defiance, calling Trump’s remarks “a blatant interference” in Iraq’s affairs and “a violation of sovereignty.” Maliki said he will continue to work towards forming a government empowered by the Coordination Framework’s constitutionally protected decision. Some CF leaders who had not endorsed Maliki appeared to equivocate in their responses to Trump’s “veto” on Maliki. A spokesman for Ammar al-Hakim said that choosing a prime minister is an exclusively Iraqi decision and criticized foreign interference, but also noted that a prime minister must be “acceptable” to stakeholders. Abadi’s Nasr Coalition similarly rejected foreign interference while urging Iraqi politicians to “prioritize the public interest…and address crises with rationality and responsibility.” A statement by Asaib Ahl al-Haq largely echoed that by Abadi’s coalition. For its part, Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Coalition (RDC) stressed that government formation “is a national Iraqi matter that stems from the will of the people as expressed through free and fair elections.” Using language that alludes to Sudani’s electoral victory, RDC emphasized the need to “establish positive and balanced relations with friendly and allied countries — particularly the United States — on the basis of mutual respect for national sovereignty, constitutional processes, and the outcomes of the democratic system.” There was no formal response from the Coordination Framework to Trump’s comments as of Thursday amid reports of divisions among CF leaders.
On January 27, Iraq’s parliament postponed a session during which lawmakers were scheduled to vote to elect a new president for the country. Parliament’s press office said the request to postpone the meeting came from the PUK and KDP, adding that speaker Haybat al-Halbousi agreed to postpone the session to give the parties more time to reach an agreement on their candidate(s). The two Kurdish parties are deadlocked over the presidency. The post is traditionally held by the PUK – a monopoly which the KDP has been trying to break. The main contenders for the presidency are former Environment Minister Nizar Amedi (PUK) and Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein (KDP), who had made a failed bid for the position back in 2018.
On January 27, caretaker Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani assigned Finance Minister Tayf Sami to be the caretaker Minister of Transportation, in addition to her current responsibilities, a government document circulating online showed. On the following day, Azzaman reported that Culture and Tourism Minister Ahmed al-Badrani has been tasked by Sudani with running the Ministry of Education. The report added that Health Minister Salih al-Hasnawi has been tasked with running the Ministry of Telecommunications. On Thursday, Water Resources Minister Aoun Thyab was appointed as acting Minister of Agriculture, a ministerial statement said. The assignments come after several incumbent ministers were elected to parliament in the November 2025 election.
On January 27, the Babylon provincial council voted to elect Ali Turki al-Jamali as governor of the province. Jamali replaces former governor Adnan Feyhan, who was elected in December to be the first deputy speaker of parliament. Both Feyhan and Jamali are members of Asaib Ahl al-Haq.
On January 28, the Ministry of Culture in the Kurdistan regional government (KRG) issued orders to stop al-Arabiya and al-Jazeera networks from broadcasting in the region. The move comes amid complaints about alleged biased and hostile coverage by the networks of the conflict between the Syrian government and Syrian Kurdish forces. In its order, the ministry argued that the coverage by certain foreign and Arab channels has “contributed to stirring social anxiety and undermined the values of the Kurdish nation.”
Sources cited in this section include: INA, ISHM archive, Ultra Iraq, Shafaq, Peregraf, Mawazin, Baghdad Today, Azzaman, social media, Rudaw, PUKMedia, AP, al-Aalem al-Jadeed, al-Sumaria.
SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Iraqi Intelligence Chief Says ISIS Ranks Increased Fivefold; Iraq Receives More ISIS Prisoners from Syria
On January 26, Iraqi officials conveyed to Russia their concerns about the recruitment of young Iraqi men into the Russian military, Iraq’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement. Deputy Foreign Minister for Bilateral Relations, Mohammed Bahr al‑Uloom, raised the issue during a meeting with Moscow’s ambassador to Baghdad, Elbrus Kutrashev, the statement explained. ِThe move comes amid increasing reports about Iraqi men being lured with promises of jobs or immigration to Europe only to find themselves pressed into service in the Russian military. According to the statement, Bahr al‑Uloom stressed Iraq’s “firm rejection of any attempts to recruit Iraqi youth into the ranks of the Russian army or any other foreign armies,” noting that “Iraqi law criminalizes and penalizes such practices.” He stressed that Baghdad “is closely monitoring this issue and gives utmost priority to protecting its citizens from being drawn into conflicts or wars that do not concern Iraq.”
On January 26, the director of Iraq’s National Intelligence Service (INIS), Hamid al-Shatri, told the Washington Post that the number of ISIS fighters in Syria had increased five fold in the past year. In an interview with the newspaper, Shatri estimated that ISIS fighters in Syria currently number around 10,000, up from 2,000. According to Shatri, the figure includes men who were once loyal to President Ahmed al-Sharaa before they defected from militant groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra and Ansar al-Sunna to join ISIS. Shatri’s estimates are significantly higher than U.S. and UN estimates, which as of last summer put the total number of ISIS fighters across Iraq and Syria at about 3,000.
On January 27, Iraqi security forces arrested a suspected ISIS militant who was planning to attack a popular restaurant in Ramadi, the provincial capital of Anbar province, Iraq’s National Security Service said. The individual was armed with grenades and a suicide bomber vest, all of which were safely removed by security forces.
On January 28, senior Iraqi security officials told Rudaw that a total of 475 suspected ISIS members have been transferred to Iraq from prisons in Syria as of Tuesday night. The transfers involved the movement of four groups of prisoners, all of which came from the Ghweran prison in Syria’s Hasaka province, the sources added. Last week, the U.S. military began transferring suspected ISIS members from Syrian prisons to Iraq as part of a plan to move up to 7,000 detainees to prevent their escape amid clashes between Syrian government forces and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). As the transfers continued, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Admiral Brad Cooper met with Prime Minister Sudani in Baghdad to discuss the security situation in the areas surrounding the Syrian prisons that hold ISIS members. The talks focused on continued coordination on timelines and logistical requirements needed to complete the transfers in a secure manner, an Iraqi government statement said. During the week, the head of U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, was also in Baghdad to coordinate and support the transfer process. A report from al-Sumaria suggested the prisoners are being taken to three prisons in Nasiriyah, Sulaymaniyah, and near Baghdad Airport. Meanwhile, the chairman of the Popular Mobilization Committee, Falih al-Fayyadh, said Iraqi authorities will prepare high security facilities for the incoming prisoners, noting that the process will require international support.
Sources cited in this section include: al-Ghad, Independent Arabia, al-Hurra, Nirij, the Washington Post, Iraq Observer, Baghdad Today, ISHM archive, Rudaw, Iraqi PM’s office, social media, al-Sumaria.
ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Carlyle Group Poised to Acquire Lukoil’s Stake at West Qurna-2, but Talks with Chevron Continue
On January 25, Iraq’s Oil Marketing Company (SOMO) published new data showing that crude oil exports during December totaled more than 107.651 million barrels, for an average of 3.472 million barrels per day (bpd). The December exports were about 81,000 bpd below the levels SOMO reported for November. SOMO data said the exports generated $6.388 billion in revenue, a drop of about $207 million from November’s revenue of $6.595 billion. The bulk of the exports came from fields in southern and central Iraq and were exported through the ports of Basra. Meanwhile, an average of 193,400 bpd was also exported from fields in the Kurdistan region via Turkey, and approximately another 10,000 bpd were exported by trucks to Jordan.
On January 29, Russian energy firm Lukoil said it reached a deal to sell its assets in 30 countries, including Iraq, to the Carlyle Group. The deal, whose value has not been disclosed, gives the U.S. private equity firm control over Lukoil’s stake in Iraq’s West Qurna-2 oilfield, as well as major projects in Egypt, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan. Lukoil said it is still negotiating with other potential buyers. The deal with Carlyle is conditional and must be approved by the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). Earlier this week, Reuters reported that Chevron and Iraq’s Oil Ministry were still conducting negotiations for a possible deal under which the U.S. energy giant would acquire Lukoil’s stake in West Qurna-2. The talks, industry sources told Reuters, are focused on improving the commercial terms of the deal, without offering specifics. The Oil Ministry confirmed that “The negotiations are still ongoing, with many details remaining under discussion.” In January, the Iraqi government instructed the Basra Oil Company to take over operations at West Qurna-2 nearly two months after the field’s operator, Lukoil, declared force majeure in response to newly imposed U.S. sanctions on Russian energy firms. The assignment of operations to the state-owned company suggested at the time that negotiations with U.S. energy companies that had expressed interest in acquiring Lukoil’s share in the field, including Chevron, have not led to a suitable agreement. West Quran-2 produces approximately 480,000 bpd of oil and holds one of the largest reserves in the world.
Sources cited in this section include: Iraq’s Oil Ministry, ISHM archive, Reuters, Iraqi PM’s office, Morningstar.
Derived from firsthand accounts and Iraq-based Arabic and Kurdish news sources, the Iraq Security and Humanitarian Monitor is a free publication of the Enabling Peace in Iraq Center.