Attachments
Scenario analysis
When and where is the hazard expected to happen?
Since June 14, 2025, the conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified considerably, involving a series of military actions targeting strategic military and scientific facilities, followed by missile strikes impacting urban areas. Concerns remain regarding Iran’s nuclear capabilities, particularly at fortified sites such as Natanz and Fordow. Recent missile activity has increasingly tested Israeli defense systems, with casualties reported on both sides exceeding 600 on one side and 24 on the other. External actors have adopted a cautious and measured approach, while deploying defensive resources in the region. Amid the escalating hostilities, there is growing concern regarding Iraq’s vulnerability to spillover effects from the regional conflict. An overview of the current conflict dynamics, humanitarian implications, and potential future developments. Iraq faces a significantly heightened risk of abrupt internal displacement alongside severe public health and environmental challenges. These risks primarily arise from two critical factors:
1. Military strikes on Iraqi territory: Iraq’s strategic geographic location, combined with the presence of both foreign and domestic armed factions, particularly around military installations raise the probability of Iraq becoming directly or indirectly involved in the conflict. Targeted attacks within Iraqi borders, especially in conflict-prone areas, could trigger sudden mass population movements, placing substantial strain on local infrastructure and humanitarian resources.
2. Radioactive contamination from regional nuclear sites: In the event of military strikes on nuclear facilities in the region, such as Iran's Natanz site or Israel's Dimona complex, the potential release of radioactive materials into the atmosphere poses a serious threat. Prevailing wind patterns could carry radioactive particles across borders, particularly into the eastern and southern governorates of Iraq, including Maysan, Wasit, and Basra. This scenario would significantly increase the risk of large-scale public health issues and cause enduring environmental degradation. The resulting contamination would not only endanger civilian populations but also severely hinder humanitarian response efforts and complicate long-term recovery and reconstruction initiatives.
These scenarios highlight the need for robust contingency planning and proactive, anticipatory measures to address potential crises. Strengthening cross-border coordination mechanisms is essential to effectively mitigate the humanitarian and environmental consequences that could impact Iraq. A coordinated regional approach will be critical to ensuring timely response, minimizing harm to civilian populations, and supporting long-term resilience in the face of transboundary threats.