Attachments
Glide n°: DR-2021-000119-IRQ
A. Situation analysis
Description of the disaster
Iraq is frequently at odds with regional neighbours over water issues. The country depends on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers for nearly all of its water. Millions of Iraqis face an intolerably harsh summer, which is causing alarm and creating major water shortages in the country. The rivers, which account for more than 90 per cent of Iraq’s freshwater, are at historically low levels due to a lack of winter rainfall in the region and snowmelt, primarily in the mountains of southern Turkey, which feeds into the rivers.
As summer approaches, upstream water sources have also shrunk the Tigris tributaries, cutting off the flow at the Diyala river and decreasing the flow of the Lower Zaab river by 70 per cent. This has caused a major crisis in the governorates of Diyala, Ninewa, and Basra, and farmers are now counting their losses. According to experts and officials, the effect of this plunge in water levels could destroy the ecology, worsen household water quality, which in most areas is already unsafe to drink and increase soil salinity, leaving barren land that was once fertile. Dropping water levels will have an impact on irrigated agriculture with less water flow, which can have a serious impact on food security, while the drought may also make vegetation more susceptible to wildfires. Climate change has also exacerbated the crisis; evaporation rates are increasing as global temperatures rise. Dams on the Tigris and Euphrates are causing growing water shortages for irrigation, endangering agricultural production; access to drinking water in towns and villages is also jeopardized. According to Iraq’s Minister of Water Resources, Iraq could face a water shortage of up to 10.8 billion cubic meters per year by 2035. The influence of climate change on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers basins is currently being investigated by the countries concerned.
One sensitive issue is that more than have of Iraq’s water relies on precipitation falling outside its borders, making the water resources management in the country vulnerable to climate change and storage projects in neighbouring countries. To cope with water scarcity, the Agriculture Ministry has prohibited summer planting of rice, corn, and vegetables, allowing only water to reach palm trees and fruit orchards. Mismanagement of water resources in Iraq, such as inefficient flood irrigation methods, rundown water pipe infrastructure, and the cultivation of water-intensive crops like rice, compound the problem. As a result of Iraq’s failure to address these issues over years of sanctions and war, the combined reservoir storage capacity of upriver dams has increased. Desertification is a sweeping environmental issue, with far-reaching consequences. Climate change is expected to raise Iraq’s mean annual temperature by 2°C, while decreasing its mean annual average rainfall by 9 percent by 2050, leading to frequent heatwaves and droughts. Prolonged droughts have taken a toll on rain-fed crops, while decreased flow of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers in Iraq has deteriorated water quality and further increased salinity in irrigated areas, resulting in a significant decline in crop productivity as well as the net growing area.
Iraq’s Ministry of Water Resources, WFP, the Global Water Stress Index, and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre on 23 August, the unfolding water crisis will soon become an unprecedented catastrophe across Iraq. The country now faces a complex water crisis that has humanitarian, economic, security, and social implications. These include population movements, losses of agriculture and livelihoods, mass demonstrations, and increased risks of food insecurity and communicable diseases. Since autumn 2020, unseasonably low levels of rainfall across the eastern region of the Mediterranean Basin, have contributed to drought conditions in Iraq. More than 12 million people in Iraq and Syria are losing access to water, food, and electricity, and urgent action is needed to combat a severe water crisis. Rising temperatures, record low levels of rainfall, and drought are depriving people of drinking and agricultural water. It is also disrupting electricity as dams run out of water, which in turn impacts the operations of essential infrastructure including health facilities. Higher temperatures caused by climate change increase the risks and severity of droughts.
Iraq’s Ministry of Water Resources on 25 May, water flowing into Iraq has dropped from a peak of nearly 80 billion cubic metres per year in the 1970s to less than 50 billion cubic metres today. The ministry expressed concern about the drop in water levels in the country's major rivers and water storage, which was 50 percent lower than the previous year. Due to climatic conditions and the fact that both the Tigris and Euphrates (as well as other major rivers) are vulnerable to upstream water use and damming in other countries, water scarcity is a recurring problem in Iraq. Iraq faces pressures on its water resources following years of conflict and under-investment in infrastructure. Basic services are deteriorating in many places and there is a growing imbalance between water supply and demand.
In a nation of 40 million people, seven million Iraqis have already been affected by drought and the risk of displacement that it entails. Based on Iraq’s high population growth rate, estimates suggest that the country’s population will grow from 38 million today to 80 million by 2050, heightening the economic and social risks of climate change is left unaddressed.
On 9 May, Diyala governorate authorities issued a drought and water shortage alert, as inflow from the Diyala river is dramatically reduced and the main water storage, the Hamrin and Darbandikhan lakes is depleted. This river begins downstream of the Darbandikhan Dam and has several tributaries, including Tanjero in Iraq and Sirwan in Iran, which is the main tributary in terms of discharges. Diyala governorate has experienced several floods and droughts over the last century, depending on rainfall and water management. A chronic water shortage has developed in recent years. While population and water demand have increased, average rainfall has decreased by approx. 50% over the last two decades, attributed to climate change. Water flows from neighbouring countries have been reduced, resulting in the loss of 77 percent of the Diyala river's catchment area outside of Iraq. The recent storage capacity of more than a dozen of dams in the area is approximately 1.9 billion cubic meters, with 1 billion cubic meters diverted annually by newly constructed diversion tunnels outside the river basin. Furthermore, the limited water resources and irrigation are mismanaged in Iraq.
The water levels of lake Hamrin have been dropping since 2019, and the area covered by water has been shrinking by about half. The Iraqi Kurdistan Region (IKR) is located in the north of Iraq, which has also suffered from extreme drought. Iraq is a semi-arid country that suffers from recurrent droughts. Climate change is continuously increasing the frequency and severity of the drought phenomenon in Iraq over the past years. In addition to pollution and climate change, Iraq’s water resources face the threat of mega water projects. Prolonged heat waves, erratic precipitation, higher than average temperatures, and increased disaster intensity are putting additional strain on Iraq’s post-war environment.
Across the country, the first substantial rainfall of the season in November 2020 facilitated sowing activities that were completed by mid-December and early crop prospects were relatively promising. In central and southern parts of the country, where crops require supplementary irrigation, the season proceeded under reasonably favourable conditions, and the development of cereal crops, despite above-average temperatures, was satisfactory. In northern parts of the country, sporadic and insufficient precipitation in Ninewa Governorate as well as portions of north-eastern Dahuk, Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, and Salah Al Din provinces, affected conditions of mainly rainfed winter cereals. Rainfall in March and early April, which would have been critical to saving the crops, did not materialize. In May, extreme temperatures (35-40°C) further reduced the already meagre yield prospects for winter grains in drought-affected areas.
Currently, around two million Iraqis face food insecurity. With water depletion, there are security risks associated with water depletion, which could be exacerbated by drought and climate change. Iraq is struggling how to deal with dwindling upstream water flows. Balancing the needs of the environment and agriculture in Iraq is a challenge, and the Iraqi government lacks a clear management plan for the future. Despite the fact that water is used for human consumption, agriculture, and marshland supply, Iraq has no water distribution plan, even though water from upstream is less. The Iraqi government needs to ensure that all Iraqis have access to clean water and basic services. Drought is one of the most complex natural disasters; it is still challenging to identify its cause and range of development. Drought has been a severe recurring phenomenon in Iraq over the last two decades due to climate change, although Iraq has historically been one of the most water-rich countries in the Middle East.
The recent drought trend analysis in a semi-arid area of Iraq is based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. The lack of precipitation exacerbated already-existing regional tensions over water resources management. The major rivers in the area (Tigris and Euphrates), provide the majority of irrigation water. It is estimated that a reduced amount of water streams into the country due to the construction of dams upstream outside of Iraqi territory. Upstream countries also increased water withdrawals to meet their increased needs as a result of population growth and increased water consumption. In northern parts of the country, sporadic and insufficient precipitation in Ninewa Governorate as well as portions of north-eastern Dahuk, Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, and Salah Al Din provinces, affected conditions of mainly rainfed winter cereals and production is expected to be significantly lower than last year. On 25 May 2021 at the Humanitarian Country Team meeting, UNFAO presented a worsening drought that is threatening agriculture and livelihoods in the Dhi Qar Governorate of Iraq, 300 kilometres south of Baghdad. Other southern agricultural governorates, including AlQādisiyyah, Muthanna, and Missan, are also suffering under the effects of the drought. The southern agricultural provinces of Iraq are home to nearly a quarter of the total population of the country. The drought is placing increasing pressure on agricultural families, with dozens of families moving out of at least 20 villages in the area.
Iraq faces a unique set of environmental challenges, the impacts of changing weather patterns have already been felt in recent years, with increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and rising environmental degradation throughout the country. As demographic growth puts further strain on natural resources that are becoming increasingly scarce, the government’s capacity to devise and implement the necessary adaptation and mitigation policies is hampered by a daunting context of post-conflict reconstruction. The water crisis in the country is expected to persist and may have humanitarian, economic, security, and social ramifications, including population movements. The most serious long-term threat to the country, however, is the potential economic impact and environmental devastation caused by climate change. According to the UN Environment Program, Iraq is the fifth most vulnerable country in the world to the effects of climate change. Evidence of growing climate risks is all around us. Extreme heat is becoming more common, drought is becoming more frequent, and dust storms are becoming more intense. affects 39 percent of Iraq's territory, and increased salination threatens agriculture on 54 percent of the land. 8 Dam construction on the headwaters and tributaries of the historic Tigris and Euphrates rivers - the lifeblood for the country - has reduced water flow, causing the salt wedge from the Gulf to migrate upstream into the Shatt al-Arab.