Iraq: Displacement Tracking Matrix | DTM Round 86 - December 2017 [EN/AR/KU]

From 30 November to 31 December 2017:

• As of 31 December 2017, the DTM has identified 2,615,988 internally displaced persons (435,998 families) displaced after January 2014, dispersed across 97 districts and 3,711 locations in Iraq. For the same period, DTM has also identified 3,220,362 returnees (536,727 families).

• Overall, the total number of identified IDPs decreased by approximately 9% (267,750 individuals). Decreases were recorded across 17 of Iraq’s 18 governorates.

• The returnee population increased by 17% (460,704 individuals) during the month of December. This significant increase is mainly due to the completion of a DTM joint data collection exercise carried out in cooperation with local authorities in west Mosul.

Considering the available information and the DTM methodology, the Humanitarian Country Team (HCT) has revised the planning figures for the humanitarian response at 2.6 million internally displaced persons and 3.2 million returnees.

SITUATION OVERVIEW

For the first time since the beginning of the Iraq displacement crisis that started in December 2013, DTM has recorded more returnees (3.2 million individuals) than IDPs (2.6 million individuals) across the country.

At the end of 2015, there were 468,780 returnees in Iraq; at the end of 2016, there were 1,370,862. In 2017, the number of returnees increased by 1,849,500 individuals, reaching a total of 3,220,362.
Returns have taken place to the governorates of Anbar (38%),
Ninewa (30%) and Salah al-Din (14%) – these three concentrate 82% of the total returns and are the governorates of origin of 86% of the current IDP population: most IDPs displaced from Ninewa (57%), followed by Anbar (15%)and Salah al-Din (14%). Therefore,
Anbar, Ninewa and Salah al-Din are the epicentre of displacement and return.

Intra-governorate return accounts for 55% of returnees. This has been a common trend across all governorates and is likely to continue, since in those governorates that have received returnees, the percentage of intra-governorate IDPs remains high. In fact, the most significant concentration of IDPs is currently in Ninewa (57%), with an intra-governorate IDP population of 97%.

The dynamic nature of the conflict has dictated the trend of returns. Returns have been sustained since July 2016, when the campaign against ISIL intensified, with the periods October–November 2016 (aftermath of the offensive to retake the Anbar districts of Ramadi,
Heet and Fallujah as well as eastern districts of Ninewa) and May– June 2017 (Mosul operations) witnessing the highest numbers of returns. Since the dynamics of return follow the conflict’s evolution, returns are not linked to the length of time IDPs have spent in displacement; displacement and return movements are largely independent.

The significant increase of 17% (460,704 individuals) in the returnee population is largely due to the completion of a joint mapping exercise carried out in west Mosul and launched at the beginning of November 2017. This collaboration aimed to identify reliable governmental and local stakeholders able to support the monitoring of IDPs and returnees’ movements across Mosul city.
Notably, the prolonged occupation and severe damage of the local network in west Mosul had required an extensive engagement at the neighborhood level from local authorities to strengthen the quality and accuracy of the population data. Following several rounds of field consultations and data triangulation, closely supported by the Ministry of Migration and Displacement (MoMD) and the Ministry of Trade, these up-to-date figures were integrated in this DTM round.