FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Following two years of poor crop production, prospects for 2010 winter crops are good
- Imports of cereals in 2009/10 (July/June) are forecast at 5.1 million tonnes compared to 4.7 million tonnes the previous year
Good prospects for the 2010 winter cereal output following two years of drought affected crop
Harvesting of the 2010 winter cereal crops has started in early May in the mainly irrigated southern areas and it is proceeding northward to the rain-fed areas. Production prospects are favourable due to above average rains from October to December 2009 that induced farmers to increase planted area and good yields. Area planted under wheat crop has increased by 30-35 percent compared to the previous two years that were severely affected by drought, but still remains about 10 percent below the last five year's average.
Early estimates indicate an aggregate wheat and barley output of about 3 million tonnes in 2010, compared to the drought affected 1.8 million tonnes obtained in 2009 and 2008. The good performance of winter grains in northern rain-fed Governorates including Ninawa, the country's breadbasket, following abundant rainfall and warm temperatures provided almost ideal growing conditions along the season leading to near-record yields. By contrast, yields are expected to be average to below-average in most southern and central irrigated areas due to the low water levels in the Euphrates and Tigris rivers and the high soil salinity. In addition, the shortage of irrigation water induced the Government to restrict planted area of wheat and rice in some of the major provinces with irrigated agriculture.
Favourable precipitations in the north have improved pasture conditions and livestock numbers are gradually recovering from the effects of the two consecutive drought years. The expected increase in barley production may lead to a substantial decrease in feed prices increasing the profitability of livestock and poultry activities.