Attachments
Humanitarian context
One month after the latest military escalation in the Middle East, which began on 28 February, intensifying hostilities have sharply worsened the humanitarian situation with no signs of deescalation. Sustained strikes, retaliatory attacks,
and the widening scope of the conflict have deepened regional instability, driving civilian casualties, damaging critical infrastructure, and increasing displacement.
This escalation is unfolding in a region already hosting over 24 million forcibly displaced people and returnees. Many were already facing severe economic insecurity, heightened protection risks, and significant unmet needs. Host communities, who already are struggling, must absorb new displacement amid limited resources, overstretched services, and constrained funding.
The rapid deterioration is driving internal displacement, and raising concerns about potential refugee outflows. In Iran, government sources estimate that 600,000 to 1 million households—up to 3.2 million people—have temporarily left their homes. In Lebanon, more than 1 million people are now internally displaced.
While cross-border movements remain relatively limited and irregular, the risk of larger scale outflows persists as insecurity deepens and access to services and livelihoods declines. Since the start of the crisis, over 60,600 Iranians and 28,600 Lebanese have crossed into neighbouring countries. Additionally, more than 179,000 Syrians from Lebanon and 38,500 Afghans from Iran have returned to their countries of origin—Syrian returns being largely family driven or prompted by worsening living conditions.