MENA Regional Escalation – Flash Update #1 OCHA Regional Office for the Middle East and North Africa (As of 17 June 2025)

Overview

Tensions are rising across the Middle East due to military escalation between Iran and Israel.
Multiple daily attacks by both States have continued since 13 June.

Civilians in both Iran and Israel are being killed and injured while homes, schools and other civilian infrastructure have been destroyed or damaged. Health care facilities and teams have reportedly also been impacted. The risk expands to populations in other countries in the region with interceptions reported over Syrian, Iraqi, Lebanese and Jordanian territory, and debris falling in populated areas.

Warnings have been traded by both Iran and Israel for civilians in key cities to evacuate. In Iran, on 16 June, this triggered significant displacement out of Tehran towards the Northern Provinces, resulting in heavy traffic jams on highways. Movement has been hampered in Iran by fuel shortages, leading to queues for over five hours at gas stations for some leaving the capital.

Impact has been seen regionally, with missile launches from Yemen towards Israel and Occupied Palestinian Territory, and heightened tensions involving armed groups in Iraq. Airspace closures, sirens, and protests have been reported across the region.

This escalation takes place as the region already grapples with mounting humanitarian needs, sharply reduced funding, and constrained operational space for humanitarian action. As per the newly launched and prioritized Global Humanitarian Overview the region is already home to 39.3 million people in need of humanitarian assistance.

As of April 2025, Iran alone hosts approximately 3.5 million refugees and individuals in refugeelike situations. The country still hosts one of the world's largest Afghan refugee populations, with approximately 750,000 registered and an estimated 2.6 million undocumented Afghans residing in the country. 1 This escalation risks further erosion of security and socioeconomic fabric in the broader region and has the potential to give rise to humanitarian needs, while diverting attention and resources from already severe situations in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon.

De-escalation is vital to preventing further suffering of civilians and population displacements. In addition, all parties to armed conflict must respect international humanitarian law. The parties must take constant care to spare civilians and civilian objects from harm. In a statement on 12 June, the UN Secretary-General recalled ‘the obligation of UN Member States to act in accordance with the UN Charter and international law’ and called on ‘both sides to show maximum restraint, avoiding at all costs a descent into deeper conflict, a situation that the region can hardly afford.’