Attachments
Executive Summary
The Israeli-Iranian conflict has escalated significantly since June 14, 2025, with Israel conducting strikes on Iranian military and scientific infrastructure, followed by Iranian retaliation on Israeli cities. Despite US intelligence claims, Israeli sources indicate Iran is nearing breakout nuclear capability at fortified sites like Natanz and Fordow. Iranian missiles are now regularly breaching Israeli defenses. Casualties reported include over 600 Iranian deaths and 24 Israeli deaths. The US posture remains uncertain, with President Trump suggesting potential involvement while deploying defensive assets to the region. This report outlines current conflict dynamics, humanitarian considerations, and potential future scenarios.
Conflict Overview: Diplomacy to Escalation
The U.S.–Iran nuclear talks did not prevent an Israeli strike, which occurred after the 60-day window provided by the US. Enrichment is at 60%, and fortified sites like Natanz and Fordow are nearing breakout capability according to Israeli sources, despite US intelligence suggesting Iran is not close to a nuclear bomb in the near-term. President Donald Trump, who previously claimed deterrence, now supports a diplomatic deal while not ruling out entering the conflict.