Attachments
Introduction
This paper assesses the current state of the Iran conflict, especially through the lens of terrorism, its impact on Iranian proxy organisations, the escalating threat of civil war in Iran, the potential for destabilisation in Iraq and the Levant, maritime and cyber dimensions of asymmetric warfare, the broader implications for Middle Eastern and global security, and the impact on terrorism in Western nations. The analysis draws on official government threat products, intelligence assessments, and open-source reporting current as of March 16th, 2026.
The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a joint US–Israeli military operation on February 28th, 2026 has thrown the Middle East into chaos, increasing the risk of future terrorist activity both in the region and overseas while negatively impacting the global economy. His son Mojtaba Khamenei has been elected as his replacement; however, both the US and Israel have threatened to assassinate him. Operation Epic Fury (United States) and Operation Roaring Lion (Israel) represent the culmination of a 23-month escalation cycle that began after direct strikes by Israel that killed eight senior members of the IRGC. Iran retaliated with the first direct missile attack on Israel in April 2024. Conflict intensified through the June 2025 Twelve-Day War and now encompasses the entire Persian Gulf.
Iran’s recent retaliatory strikes against US bases and civilian infrastructure across six Gulf states, its closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the mobilisation of proxy networks from Iraq to Yemen signal a regime fighting for survival, one that has historically turned to terrorism as a tool of asymmetric warfare. Early indicators suggest the IRGC intends to sustain a prolonged campaign, leveraging global economic disruption as strategic pressure on the United States. This will likely be accompanied by a pattern consistent with Iran’s long-standing deterrence model: broaden the battlefield, escalate through proxy partners, and complement conventional military action with covert operations and possibly cyber activity.
Internationally, the legal basis for the initial US-Israeli strikes remains contested. The US has positioned itself as removing a major state sponsor of terrorism and aspiring nuclear power. The UN Secretary-General and a number of states have focused solely on the nuclear threat and characterised Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion as inconsistent with the UN Charter's prohibition on the use of force.3 This is a position supported by the UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights and Counter-terrorism, who assessed that Iran had not enriched uranium to weapons-grade to levels sufficient for a nuclear bomb.