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Key Messages
Meteorological drought across Indonesia: With El-Nino at a moderate level, positive IOD index, parts of Indonesia have experienced prolonged meteorological drought during the dry season. As a result, in August 2023, around 23,451 hectares of paddy cultivation area were affected nationally and about 6.964 ha of experienced crop failure.
Delayed rainy season: Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) data indicates that only 73 of the expected 178 seasonal zones experienced rainy season in the second half of October 2023. Thus, indicating a delayed rainy season across Indonesia.
Increased frequency of disasters: Indonesia's National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) reported 1,185 disasters between July and September 2023, of which majority are drought related. This number is significantly higher compared to the same period in 2022.
Decreased Rice Production: By October 2023, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) estimated a decrease of rice production of 645 thousand tons resulting into total production of 30.9 tons. This is two percent decrease In comparison with 2022. BPS also estimated that throughout 2023, paddy harvested area in Indonesia will reach approximately 10.20 million hectares, which is 2.45 percent or 255.79 thousand hectares lesser when compared to 2022 (10.45 million hectares).
Status of Food Security and Nutrition: According to the National Food Agency (NFA), more than half of all provinces in Indonesia were considered food secure by September 2023. Out of 34 provinces, 22 provinces were categorized as stable. 12 provinces were being monitored for possible deterioration for its food security and nutrition situation, compared to 3 last year.
Continued impact of El Niño: The National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) predicted that the ongoing El Niño conditions and its resulting climate conditions over Indonesia is likely to have implications on rice planting and production, even with the regular start of rainy season in November 2023. Additionally, delayed onset of the rainy season could potentially result in reduced rice production by late 2023 and early 2024.