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Indonesia

Indonesia: Impact Monitoring of Hydrometeorological Hazards (July – September (Q3) 2022)

Attachments

Key Messages

Climate Situation – Q3 2022: From July to September 2022, rainfall across Indonesia was higher than the thirty-year long-term average. This was the result of the early start of the rainy season in combination with the persisting La Niña phenomenon. Most areas in Jawa, Sulawesi, Kalimantan,
Maluku, Papua and the southern part of Sumatera experienced rainfall above normal condition, while the northern parts of Sumatera, Kalimantan and Papua experienced rainfall below normal resulting in drier conditions compared to the long-term average.

Impact of Climate and Hydrometeorological Disasters on Agriculture: The Ministry of Agriculture reported that floods and droughts were the primary causes of paddy crop disturbances in August 2022. Both floods and droughts affected a total of 1,500 hectares of paddy cultivation. Around 80% of paddy cultivation disturbances were caused by floods; 20% of flood disturbances resulted in crop failures.

Status of Food Security and Nutrition: The National Food Agency has reported that most provinces were food secure in August 2022. Thirty-one provinces were found to be stable, while three provinces were under watch for possible deterioration of food security and nutrition. These include Nusa Tenggara Timur, Kalimantan Barat and Sulawesi Barat.

Impact of Disasters – Q3 2022: The National Disaster Management Agency reported that at least 634 disasters occurred between July and September 2022, which represents a 35% increase compared to the same period in 2021. Most disasters were caused by hydrometeorological hazards including floods, droughts, landslides, extreme weather (e.g., storms and cyclones). Forty percent of all disasters took place in Jawa Barat,
Aceh, and Jawa Timur.

Rice Production – Jan to Sep 2022: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) reported that between January and September rice production reached 26.1 million tonnes. Compared to the same period in the previous year, the harvested areas and rice production only slightly decreased by 0.86% and 0.22% respectively. Overall, BPS estimates that national rice production will be 32 million tonnes by the end of the year representing an increase of 2.3% compared to 2021.

Climate Forecast on Agriculture: The National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) predicted that 5.4 million hectares of paddy cultivation will receive more rainfall between October and December 2022 than the thirty-year long-term average. More than 80% of the paddy cultivation areas in Jawa are predicted to experience rainfall above normal condition. This poses a risk of floods and pest disturbances, which can lead to crop failures.

Climate Outlook – Nov 2022 to Jan 2023: The La Niña phenomenon is still ongoing and forecasted to continue, despite with a weaker effect until the end of the year. The current La Niña phenomenon has continued to prevail for three consecutive years since 2020 (Triple-dip La Niña). Latest trends show that ENSO anomalies are now occurring once every 2-3 years. Before 1980, these events only happened once every 5 years. Increased rainfall is expected in Jawa, Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi, Maluku and Papua. Rainfall in Sumatera and Kalimantan is expected to be normal, while below normal rainfall is predicted in Sumatera Barat, Riau, Kalimantan Barat and Kalimantan Tengah.