Attachments
Key messages
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According to a set of predictive models, the global El Niño effect will continue into February/March 2016.
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The Indonesia Weather and Meteorology Bureau (BMKG) predicts the dry season will be prolonged in most of the country. In South Sumatra, Southeast Sulawesi, and West Java, the rainy season may not start until the end of November 2015. In Central and East Java, Bali and West Nusa Tenggara the rainy season is predicted to start in mid-December 2015, while most of East Nusa Tenggara may not start until January 2016.
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Interventions by Government of Indonesia are ongoing to address the impact of drought. Particular attention is warranted for these issues:
a) Production in the current dry season harvest will likely be reduced. This is of immediate concern, particularly for agricultural wage laborers whose primary source of income will be reduced.
b) The harvested area for January - April 2016 will likely be reduced. The Ministry of Agriculture is exploring more drought tolerant varieties and the expansion of planted area.
c) Twenty-two percent of Java’s rice fields are dependent on rainfall. Java produces 44% of Indonesia’s rice. A poor rainy season may impact rice production nationally.
d) As drought will reduce water availability, household access to clean drinking water is a major concern that may affect large populations.
e) Rising food prices require close monitoring. Poor urban households may be heavily impacted by price fluctuations.
f) Poor water access and reduced diet quality are a significant issue due to high levels of chronic (stunting) and acute (wasting) malnutrition.