Indonesia Food Security Monitoring Bulletin Special Focus: The Impact of Drought related to El Niño Volume 3, August 2016 [EN/ID]


Key messages

  1. A La Niña will likely start in August or September 2016 and will continue into the last quarter of 2016, causing wetter than normal weather conditions.

  2. The Indonesia Weather and Meteorology Bureau (BMKG) predicts unusually high rainfall will continue until September 2016 in most of the country. Rainfall levels in Java, the eastern areas of Sulawesi, central Papua and southern Kalimantan and Sumatra may increase significantly by up to 200 percent.

  3. During past La Niña events, Indonesia experienced above normal rainfall, especially across Java, Maluku, Sulawesi and the southern areas of Sumatra, Kalimantan and Papua, causing heavy rains and higher than normal rainfall that led to increased occurrence of floods and landslides events. During the 2010 and 2011 La Niña, 779 people lost their life and 2857 were injured due to floods.

  4. The impact of weather changes associated with La Niña on food security is difficult to predict. Historically, increased rainfall negatively impacted agricultural production in some areas and positively in others. However, the weather changes tend to weigh heavily on food access, stressing food and livelihoods security situation of the most vulnerable groups.

  5. Current weather and the possible La Niña conditions increase the risk of more frequent and intense flood events and landslides. In the coming rainy season this may mean more causalities and damage, and may impact food access by disrupting travel networks and food storage, and health and nutrition status by higher risk of waterborne diseases.