Attachments
Description of the Event
Date when the trigger was met 2023-08-24
What happened, where and when?
Indonesian Meteorological Service, through its official statement released in August 2023, indicates that the El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole forecasts, which indicated temperature changes in the Pacific and Indian oceans respectively, were anticipated to occur simultaneously during the 2023 dry season [1]. The concurrence of both phenomena led to decreased rainfall across the Indonesian region due to the El Niño phenomenon. Based on BMKG's forecast, the dry season (determined from days without rain) reached its peak in October 2023 for several areas such as the Southern Part of Sumatra, the Southern part of Kalimantan, and Java island, or November 2023 for Bali, East Nusa Tenggara, and West Nusa Tenggara area due to anomalies in Pacific Ocean temperatures that have been growing, with the index reaching 0.8, concerningly close to the threshold of 1, at which point the El Niño status goes from "Weak" to "Moderate".
Following the forecast published in August, BMKG updated its forecast in October 2023 stating that the El Niño "Moderate" status will continue from November 2023 to February 2024. Adding to the forecast, BMKG indicates that the El Niño phenomenon will continue beyond February [2]. Consequently, as El Niño triggers low rainfall probability, several areas or regions in Indonesia will continue to be impacted by prolonged drought or less rainfall in the area beyond November 2024. With the possibility of a prolonged dry season, negative impacts will continue to hamper the community and cause more damage to their well-being. Responding to the forecast, BMKG instructed relevant stakeholders such as provincial/district authorities and technical ministries (including disaster management at the provincial and regional levels) to continue implementing preparedness activities in their areas. However, the index will continue to weaken towards a neutral level.
According to BMKG, starting in March 2024, the El Niño index will continue to weaken towards a neutral level until the end of the year. Based on the modeling, more and more areas, especially the northern part of Indonesia, will start to experience rainfall or even heavy rainfall. As the phenomenon continues, rainfall, in theory, cannot be the sole indicator of the end of El Niño. Thus, further forecasts will be published based on monthly weather and climate monitoring throughout Indonesia.
Link(s):
[1] Dwikorita BMKG, accessible at: https://www.bmkg.go.id/press-release/?p=kemarau-kering-bmkg-ingatkan-ancaman-gagal-panen-dankarhutla&tag=press-release&lang=ID
[2] Dwikorita BMKG, accessible at: https://bpbd.ngawikab.go.id/2023/10/29/bmkg-prediksi-kapan-el-nino-ri-berakhir-januari-2024/