Attachments
REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the fifty-second week of 2024, the ASEAN region experienced 36 significant disasters, including floods, landslides, and wind-related events. These disasters affected Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. The Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported incidents in West Sulawesi, Riau, North Sumatra, South Sumatra, West Nusa Tenggara, West Sumatra, East Java, Banten, North Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, Central Java, and Central Sulawesi provinces. In Malaysia, the Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding in Kelantan and Terangganu. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) and Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) of the Philippines reported flooding and landslides in MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and Region XI. The Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported that the widespread flooding in Southern Thailand, which began in Week 48, continues to persist in Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Trang, and Narathiwat provinces. In Viet Nam, the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported flooding in Quang Ngai.
HIGHLIGHT:
In the Philippines, the NDRRMC reported widespread flooding in several regions due to several weather systems. In MIMAROPA, the trough of Tropical Cyclone PABUK which developed in Week 51 and had been active in Week 52, combined with the effects of the shear line, caused floods and landslides that claimed 3 lives, displaced 1.5K individuals, and affected 74.1K persons (15.2K families) in the provinces of Palawan and Oriental Mindoro. The effects of the shear line also affected Bicol region where 678 persons were affected by floods and landslides. Meanwhile, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) brought heavy rainfall in the provinces of Region XI where floods and landslides resulted in 2 missing persons, 20 injuries, 1.5K displacements, and 28.7 affected individuals (6.5K families). In addition, the NDRRMC recorded damages to 560 houses (238 totally damaged and 322 partially damaged), 4 bridges, and 4 roads. In Thailand, the DDPM continued to report updates about the widespread flooding and landslides in the Southern Region which had already affected 11 provinces with a total of 780.3K households affected and 54 deaths. According to DDPM's latest update, the flooding persists in Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Trang, and Narathiwat provinces, where 7.6K households are still currently affected. Relevant government authorities and agencies continue to actively mobilise resources to address the situation and ensure that supplies and logistical support for the affected and displaced population are provided. Authorities also continue to monitor weather conditions and provide timely advisories.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) has shown a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across the maritime continent, including Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Southern Thailand, and Central Viet Nam. Currently, an area of convection INVEST 94S is being monitored about 517 km south of Yogyakarta, Indonesia. It is forecast to track southwest way from the landmass of Java. The potential for development into a significant tropical cyclone within 24 hours is low (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Three (3) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level IV), Ibu (alert level III), and Semeru (alert level II), Raung (alert level II), and Marapi (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Kanlaon Volcano (alert level 3), Mayon (alert level 1), and Taal (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia and the northeastern Maritime Continent. Cooler than usual temperature is predicted over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia. There is no notable increase in chance of very heavy rainfall. Signs of La Niña conditions, with either ENSO neutral or short-lived La Niña conditions during December 2024 – March 2025.