Attachments
REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the fifty-first week of 2024, the ASEAN region experienced 35 significant disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related events. These disasters affected Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. The Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported incidents in Aceh, Banten, West Java, Central Java, East Java, Central Kalimantan, West Nusa Tenggara, Papua, South Sulawesi, and North Sumatra Provinces. In Malaysia, the Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding in Sabah and Sarawak. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) and Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) of the Philippines reported flooding and landslides in Regions X and XI due to INVEST 96W (Tropical Depression “Querubin”). Additionally, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) noted that flooding in Southern Thailand, which began in Week 48, continues to persist in Surat Thani and Nakhon Si Thammarat. In Viet Nam, the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported landslides in Vinh Long. Lastly, Tropical Cyclone 28W, currently classified as a Tropical Depression over the Viet Nam East Sea, is expected to continue affecting weather conditions in the ASEAN region.
HIGHLIGHT:
In Indonesia, prolonged heavy rainfall and river overflow have caused significant flooding, landslides, and wind-related disasters in South Sulawesi Province, as reported by the BNPB. These events have tragically resulted in the loss of two lives, affected 30.7K families (79.5K individuals), and displaced 1.8K people across Sidenreng Rappang, Gowa, Wajo, Pinrang, Barru, Soppeng, and Makassar. The disasters have also caused damage to 1.7K houses, three bridges, 14 schools, one health facility, six public facilities, three places of worship, and approximately 7..3K hectares of agricultural land. In Thailand, the flooding situation in Southern Thailand, which began in Week 48, continues to persist in Surat Thani and Nakhon Si Thammarat, affecting 46.6K families, according to the DDPM. Relevant government authorities and agencies are actively mobilising resources to address the situation, including providing logistics support for the displaced population, monitoring weather conditions, and conducting data collection and evacuation operations.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) has shown a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across the maritime continent, including Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Southern Thailand. As of 23 Dec at 1400 HRS UTC+7, Tropical Cyclone PABUK, located over the sea northwest of the Truong Sa archipelago, has strengthened into a tropical storm, Viet Nam local name Storm No. 10 (NCHMF). The strongest winds near the centre are between 62-74 km/h, moving in a west-northwest direction at approximately 10 km/h. In the next 24-60 hours, PABUK is expected to continue moving west-northwest and then west-southwest at about 5-10 km/h, eventually weakening into a tropical depression and further into a low-pressure area over the sea from Binh Thuan to Tra Vinh on 26 Dec (NCHMF).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Nine (9) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level IV), Ibu (alert level III), and Semeru (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Kanlaon Volcano (alert level 3), Mayon (alert level 1), and Taal (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier conditions are predicted over parts of the western Maritime Continent, while wetter conditions are predicted over southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia and the northeastern Maritime Continent. Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the equatorial region and cooler than usual temperature is predicted over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a moderate increase in chance for very heavy rainfall event to occur over southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia and northern Philippines; and a moderate increase in chance for extreme hot conditions to occur over much of the equatorial region. Signs of La Niña conditions, with either ENSO neutral or short-lived La Niña conditions during December 2024 – March 2025.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS, DSWD;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NCHMF;
Various news agencies.