Attachments
REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the forty-seventh week of 2024, the ASEAN region experience 41 significant disasters, including droughts, floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related events. Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam were affected by these disasters.
The Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported drought, flooding, storms, and wind-related events in West Java, Central Java, East Java, West Sulawesi, Lampung, Wonosobo, West Kalimantan, West Sumatra, Gorontalo, Riau, Banten, North Sumatra, and Aceh. In Malaysia, the Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding in Terengganu, Perak, Kelantan, Melaka, and Selangor. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported that flooding from Tropical Cyclone MAN-YI still persist in Regions 3 and 5. Lastly, the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported floods and landslides in in Quang Nam, Quang Ngai, and Binh Dinh.
HIGHLIGHT:
Monsoon rains and weather disturbances brought high average rainfall over the southern parts of the region. In Indonesia, majority of the significant disaster reported in the past weeks were in Sumatra and Java. Storms, floods, strong winds, and landslides affected 25.5K persons in Sumatra and 21.4K persons in Java. Moreover, 14 deaths, 8 missing persons, and 92 injuries were recorded in North Sumatra as reported by the BNPB. Meanwhile, in the Philippines, the NDRRMC continued to report the impacts of Tropical Cyclones TORAJI, USAGI, and MAN-YI which had reached 4.2M affected persons in Regions 1, 2, 3, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, 5, 8, and CAR. About 167.3K persons remained displaced, of these 104.7K persons were served in 941 evacuation centres. In addition, the NDRRMC reported an estimated 62M USD worth of damages in agriculture, livestock, and infrastructure. Authorities immediately conducted emergency response operations and provision of assistance to affected communities.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) has shown a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high in the northern regions of the Philippines, which is associated with the effects of the remnants of Tropical Cyclone MAN-YI. Significant rainfall has also been recorded in Indonesia, Malaysia, and southern Thailand. As of this reporting, INVESTS 99B and 96S are being monitored in the Indian Ocean. According to JTWC, INVEST 96S located west southwest of Sumatra, has low potential to develop into a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, the chance for development of INVEST 99B, currently located over Southeast Bay of Bengal, is medium. (BMKG, DMH Myanmar, PAGASA, JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Four (4) significant earthquakes (M≥5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Currently, Mount Lewotobi Laki-laki remains at alert level IV, the highest alert level for volcanoes in Indonesia, and continues to erupt (PVMBG). Additionally, Mount Ibu (alert level III), Dukono (alert level II), Dempo (alert level 2), and Semeru (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), and Kanlaon (alert level 2) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the central equatorial region and the southern Maritime Continent in the coming week. Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent, apart from the southern region, and southern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia. There is a small chance of very heavy rainfall over the central parts of equatorial region, in particular over northern Peninsular Malaysia. There is also a small chance of very heavy rainfall over western Java. There is an elevated chance of rainfall over northern Myanmar however, since it is the dry period, and the chance of very heavy rainfall is low. There is a small to moderate increase in chance of extreme hot conditions over parts of southern Mainland southeast Asia (small increase in chance: southern Thailand, southern Vietnam; moderate increase in chance: southern Cambodia) and a moderate increase in chance over much of the Philippines. Elsewhere, there is a small chance of extreme hot conditions over much of the equatorial region. La Niña conditions developing, with La Niña conditions likely during November 2024 – February 2025..