For the forty-fifth (45th) week of 2021, a total of 34 disasters (27 floods, 6 landslides, and 1 storm) affected the region. Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam have reportedly been affected. Heavy rainfall has caused flooding and rain-induced landslides and resulted in disasters in Sumatra, Java, Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan, and Sulawesi as reported by Indonesia’s Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB). For the Philippines, floods, landslide, and storm were reported by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) which affected areas in Davao Region. Flooding reportedly occurred in 9 provinces according to the Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM). Lastly, the Viet Nam National Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA) reported flooding and landslide in Quang Ngai, Quang Nam, Kon Tum, and Binh Dinh Province.
The Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported that the Low Pressure Area and the Northeast Monsoon caused flooding events in Phetchaburi, Ranong, Chumphon, Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Songkhla, Trang, Phuket, and Phang Nga Province since 10 Nov. The events have affected 9.9K families (49.3K people) and claimed the life of 2 individuals. The floods still persist in 4 provinces and affect 9.8K families (48.9K persons) as of 14 Nov 1800 HRS UTC+7.
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed noticeably high 7-day average rainfall in Palawan of the Philippines, South South Central Coast of Viet Nam, Eastern Malaysia, Peninsular Malaysia and Southern parts of Thailand (related to the development of INVEST 92B), and spreading across Sumatra and Java of Indonesia. As of reporting, Tropical Disturbance INVEST 92B has been detected near 259 km north-northwest of Phuket, Thailand. It is likely to continue to move West-Northwestwards and has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours (DMH, TMD, and JTWC).
Five (5) significant earthquakes (M≥5.0) were recorded in the region by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG). Mount Semeru and Ibu in Indonesia (alert level II), and Mount Taal (alert level 2) and Kanlaon (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions should be expected over much of western and southern Mainland Southeast Asia and over the southern parts of Maritime Continent. Drier conditions should be expected over the western and central equatorial region with warmer temperatures expected over the western and central equatorial region. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a moderate increase in chance for a very heavy rainfall event to occur in parts of western and southern Mainland Southeast Asia, parts of the southern Maritime Continent; a small increase in chance for extended dry conditions in Northern Sumatra, southern Peninsular Malaysia, northern Borneo; a moderate increase in chance in Northern and central Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, parts of Borneo and small increase in chance in Western and northern parts of Myanmar, northern parts of the Philippines for extreme hot conditions; a small increase in chance for extreme cold conditions in Southern Sulawesi. While the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) appears to be ending, La Niña conditions are now present in the Pacific. At the seasonal timescale, La Niña events bring wetter conditions to much of the ASEAN region.