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ASEAN Weekly Disaster Update Week 31, 27 Jul – 02 Aug 2020

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REGIONAL SUMMARY:

Multiple flooding events have occurred due to high-intensity rainfall and the overflowing of rivers in the provinces of Aceh, Gorontalo, and North Sulawesi in Indonesia as reported by the country’s Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB). Flooding in multiple regions due to heavy rain and the breaking of a geological sedimentary dike was also reported by Myanmar’s Department of Disaster Management (DDM).

HIGHLIGHT:

According to DDM, nearly 7.8K people have been displaced due to widespread flooding in multiple regions of Myanmar from 11-27 July. On 30 July, more widespread floods due to the overflow of the Ayeyarwady River in Sagaing Region resulted in more casualties and prompted the evacuation of 6.5K more people from 1.5K households. According to the ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS), water levels of the Ayeyarwady River are above danger levels in Nyaung-Oo (0.5 ft), Seiktha (1.5 ft), and Zalun (0.5 ft). As of 02 Aug, a total of 63.5K people have been affected by floods in Kachin, Sagaing, Magway, Mandalay, and Bago, Myanmar. Meanwhile in South Bolaang Mongondow in Indonesia, the BNPB reported that 22.7K people/7K households have been affected by floods due to high-intensity rainfall which caused the overflow of several rivers in the regency.

HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:

High average rainfall from 26 Jul – 01 Aug in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) is attributed to Tropical Storm SINLAKU which traversed westward making landfall in Thanh Hoa, Viet Nam on the afternoon of 02 Aug. This is in accordance with the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre’s (ASMC) forecast that wetter conditions are expected over the southern and eastern coastal regions of mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines Two (2) tropical cyclones were reported in the region by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC), Tropical Storm SINLAKU and Tropical Storm HAGUPIT.

GEOPHYSICAL:

Seven (7) significant earthquakes (M≥5.0) were recorded in the region by Indonesia’s BMKG and the Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Two (2) volcanoes in Indonesia (Karangetang, and Sinabung) under Alert Level III - Siaga (PVMBG) are under close monitoring. Lastly, Ibu, Semeru and Dukono in Indonesia remain on Alert Level II despite recent volcanic activity per PVMBG.

OUTLOOK:

For 03-09 Aug, the ASMC forecasts wetter conditions over eastern Southeast Asia and over the southern and eastern regions of mainland Southeast Asia. Drier conditions are expected to develop over the rest of Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, and Borneo. According to ASMC’s regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance of a heavy rainfall event in Viet Nam, Thailand, Myanmar and the Philippines; a low chance of extended dry conditions; and a moderate increase in chance of extreme hot conditions in Sumatra and Peninsular Malaysia and a small chance for Myanmar and the Philippines