Attachments
REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the twenty-eighth week of 2023, a total of 33 disasters (floods, landslides, storms, winds, and drought) affected the region. Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Viet Nam have reportedly been affected. Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported floods, landslides, and winds in Aceh, Central Kalimantan, Maluku, North Maluku, South Sulawesi, North Sulawesi, and West Sumatra; and Drought in East Java. Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) Malaysia reported that flooding occurred in Johor and Melaka. The Philippines' National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported flooding, landslides, storms, and winds caused by Tropical Cyclone Talim. Lastly, Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported storms and winds in Binh Thuan, An Giang, and Quang Tri Provinces.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to the PAGASA, Tropical Cyclone (TC) Talim made initial landfall over Dinapique, Isabela, the Philippines since 14 July. At most Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 1 was raised in the Philippines. As of 17 July, the NDRRMC reported that more than 50 floods, 3 landslides, and 4 other related incidents in Region 1, 3, 6, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, and NCR. NDRRMC reported the following: 9.2K families (26.3K persons) affected in 92 barangays, 1.8K persons displaced (849 inside 23 evacuation centres, 956 outside), 1 dead; for damages, 14 houses were reportedly damaged, and 5 roads and 1 bridge are currently not passable (from a total of 35 roads and 4 bridges affected); for critical lifelines, 5 cities/municipalities currently have power interruption (from 11 cities/municipalities), 1 city/municipality currently still experiencing water supply interruption (from 2 cities/municipalities), 2 cities/municipalities experienced communication interruption (already restored), and 41 seaports are non-operational (from total 42 seaports affected). Around 7K USD worth of assistance have been provided to the affected persons in Region 1, 3, 6, CALABARZON, and MIMAROPA.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed medium to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across Sumatra, northern Kalimantan, south Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua in Indonesia; Southern Myanmar; Luzon and Visayas in the Philippines; and southern parts of Viet Nam. As of reporting, TC Talilm equivalent to Category 1 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Scale), is located in NW Pacific Ocean with maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h. TC Talim is headed west-northwest at about 20 km/h and is expected to made its initial landfall over northern parts of Viet Nam on the evening/afternoon of 18 July 2023 (NCHMF, JTWC). Meanwhile, INVEST 98W has persisted apoximately 1,100 km east of Mindanao. Forecast models are in agreement that INVEST 98W will steadily develop as it remains quasi-stationary before propagating northward in around 2 days. (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Three (3) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia's *Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan *Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Ili Lewotolok (alert level II), and Karangetang (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 3), Taal (alert level 1), and Kanlaon (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Indonesia's *Pusat Vulkanologi dan *Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over much of Mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines; drier conditions are predicted over parts of the western and central equatorial region; warmer than usual temperature is expected over much of the southern ASEAN region. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a moderate increase in chance for a very heavy rainfall event to occur in Northern Philippines parts of Mainland Southeast Asia; and very likely in the parts of southeastern Maritime Continent, and moderate increase in chance in the parts of Maritime Continent and Myanmar for extreme hot conditions. El Niño conditions are likely to be established during July -- August 2023. During July and August, El Niño events tend to bring drier conditions to much of the southern ASEAN region.