For the twenty-sixth (26th) week of 2021, a total of 18 disasters (10 floods, 1 landslides, 1 storms, 5 winds-related and 1 volcano) affected the region. Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand have reportedly been affected. High intensity rain caused flooding, landslide and winds-related events in eleven provinces in Indonesia as reported by Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB). Strong winds were experienced in South Cotabato due to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) as reported by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC). The Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) has released an advisory indicating the raising of Taal Volcano's Alert Level from 2 (increasing unrest) to 3 (magmatic unrest). The Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) of Thailand reported winds and storms in Pak Tho, Ratchaburi Province.
The Taal Volcanic Mountain in Batangas Province, Calabarzon, is placed under Alert Level 3 (magmatic unrest) following a phreatomagmatic eruption that generated a short-lived dark plume of 1 kilometre-high at 1216H (GMT +7) on 1 July (PHIVOLCS). PHIVOLCS recommends immediate evacuation within a Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) due to hazards of eruption and volcanic tsunami. According to the NDRRMC, a total of 4,418 people (1,247 families) in 67 Barangays have been affected. A total of 2,566 people are displaced into 12 evacuation centres (ECs) and 1,815 displaced outside ECs. A total of 329.4K USD worth of assistance have been provided by NDRRMC and The National Resource and Logistics Management Bureau (NRLMB) to the affected people.
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed noticeable high 7-day average rainfall mostly across the southern part of Central Papua, eastern part of Sulawesi, and western parts of North Sumatra, Indonesia. A tropical cyclone warning has been issued by The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on TD07W (Emong) which is currently continues to move West-Northwestward at 40 km/h towards Batanes-Babuyan Islands, Philippines. On the current forecast, TD07W (Emong) is not expected to make a landfall in the Philppines major Island. There is also a Tropical Disturbance 97W (located about 254 km west-southwest of Manila, Philippines) which has a medium chance of developing into a significant tropical cyclone over the next 24 hours and currently forecasted to move northwestward (JTWC).
Seven (7) significant earthquakes (M≥5.0) were recorded in the region by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Sinabung, Merapi and Ili Lewotolok in Indonesia (alert level III) and Taal Volcano in the Philippines (alert level 3) reported recent volcanic activity and are under close monitoring. Volcanic activity was also reported for Mount Semeru, Krakatu, and Dukono in Indonesia according to PVMBG.
According to the ASMC, wetter conditions are expected over the southern and northern parts of the Maritime Continent, except for coastal regions of Myanmar; warmer conditions are expected over much of Mainland Southeast Asia, except the eastern parts. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for a very heavy rainfall event to occur in Central and eastern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia, the Philippines, Sulawesi, Maluku Islands and west Papua; a small increase in chance of extended dry conditions for Western Myanmar; a moderate increase in chance in Much of Myanmar, western Thailand and Java Island and small increase in chance in Parts of Thailand and Cambodia for extremely hot conditions.