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ASEAN Weekly Disaster Update Week 15, 12 – 18 Apr 2021

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REGIONAL SUMMARY:

A total of 11 disasters (7 floods and 4 wind-related) affected the region in the fifteenth week of 2021. Indonesia and Viet Nam have reportedly been affected. Several localised heavy rainfall (some accompanied by strong winds) which triggered flooding events and the overflowing of rivers have been reported by Indonesia’s Badan Nasional Penanggulan Bencana (BNPB). The Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA) reported that heavy rainfall caused flooding in Lao Cai resulting in three casualties.

HIGHLIGHT:

According to the reports from the BNPB, heavy rain on 14 Apr which was gradually accompanied by surface run-off from Mount Willis and the confluence of Kelok and Ganda rivers caused flooding of at most 120 cm in Madiun Regency,
East Java. The floods reportedly affected 597 families (2,985 persons), and damaged 96 houses. The regional disaster management agency of Madiun headed to the location to conduct monitoring and assessment. Coordination with local government and relevant authorities was also conducted.

HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:

For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed high 7-day average rainfall over the Philippine Sea associated with the development of TYPHOON SURIGAE (Bising). As of reporting, SURIGAE is located 235 km E-NE of Virac, Catanduanes moving N-NW with maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h. The typhoon is forecast to gradually weaken from its current intensity throughout the remainder of the forecast period. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 2 is raised over the Bicol and Eastern Visayas Regions. Heavy rainfall and flooding and raininduced should be expected in the aforementioned areas according to the Philippine At

GEOPHYSICAL:

Ten (10) significant earthquakes (M≥5.0) were recorded in the region by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mt. Sinabung (Alert Level III) in Indonesia and Taal volcano in the Philippines (Alert Level 2) reported recent volcanic activity and is under close monitoring. Lastly, Semeru, Raung, and Ili Lewotolo in Indonesia remain on Alert Level II despite recent volcanic activity per PVMBG.

OUTLOOK:

For the coming week, the ASMC forecasts wetter conditions for mainland Southeast Asia and northern and central Philippines (associated with tropical cyclone development); drier conditions for southern ASEAN region; cooler temperatures for central and southeastern mainland Southeast Asia and northern and central Philippines. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a moderate increase in chance for a very heavy rainfall event in northern and central Philippines; moderate chance for dry conditions in Sumatra, Western Java, Borneo, and Sulawesi; and moderate chance for extreme cold conditions in southern Myanmar, parts of Thailand, Cambodia, and northern and central Philippines.