Regional Summary of Week 49, and Outlook for Week 50
In Week 49, hydro-metorological hazards may be causing disruption but geophysical hazards are increasing in activity. Over the past week, 9 earthquakes of more than M5.0 were reported in the region. There was also increased activity reported for Mt Mayon, Mt Kanlaon and Mt Dukono and Mt Anak Krakatau. (BMKG)
ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) reported that the Northeast Monsoon season will bring the traditional dry season to the northern ASEAN region, and more shower activities to the southern ASEAN region. Drier-than-usual conditions that have persisted over much of the Philippines and northern Borneo are forecast to continue. There are signs of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) strengthening in the Pacific Ocean. The MJO is expected to further develop and propagate through Phase 2 in the latter part of fortnight. This may bring more rainfall than average to the equatorial South China Sea region, with the highest likelihood over southern Thailand and northern Peninsular Malaysia towards the second week of December.
Temperatures in the Mekong sub-region are expected to be slightly warmer.
Given the weather conditions, it will be prudent to look out for vector borne and water borne diseases following flash floods. Landslide risk should be taken note especially in areas with high risk of slope failure. PVMBG has forecasted increased potential land movements in most parts of Sumatra, Java (mainly west and central),
Kalimantan, Bali, Nusa Tenggara Timur, Nusa Tenggara Barat, Maluku and Papua.
Geophysical hazards seems to be reporting increased activity, travellers to volcanic areas are advised to take note of local government advisories before ascending.
Travellers are also advised to be informed of the permanent danger zone (PDZ) and evacuation notices in high-risk areas.
All reported disasters were within the coping capacity of the member states..