Regional Summary of Week 44, and Outlook for Week 45 and 46
In Week 44, the reported disasters occurred mostly in the central region of ASEAN. We have seen typhoon passing through the northern part of Philippines, floods in West Sumatra and drought in the Central Java Region.
Typhoon Yutu (Rosita) made landfall between 30 and 31 October 2018. The areas which are likely to be affected were roughly similar to the Super-typhoon Mangkhut. The damages reported thus far have been minimal, AHA Centre is monitoring the situation closely with NDRRMC.
There was an earthquake of M6.0 being reported in San Jose (Antique) with a depth of 619km. Shake intensity which was felt was minimal and impact was assessed to be low.
There is no change in status of volcanoes in Philippines (PHIVOLCS).
In Week 42, VONA for Mt Dukono was revised to ORANGE on 2 Nov due to increase activities (BG-PVMBG). BG-PVMBG recorded 27 occurrences of ground movement and 2 landslide events over the past week.
ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) The prevailing dry conditions over the northern ASEAN region are expected to continue in the first two weeks of November 2018. However, in week 2, drier conditions are likely to be confined mainly over the northern Philippines and the northern South China Sea areas. During the period, the southward shift of the monsoon rain-band is likely to bring an increase in shower activities to the equatorial ASEAN region. Although the MJO signal is currently weak, some models forecast the MJO to re-emerge and may strengthen towards week 2. This could contribute to wetter conditions over the equatorial region, namely northern Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia and possibly western Borneo. Warmer temperatures expected over the inland areas of northern Southeast Asia in the first fortnight of November 2018..
AHA Centre will be monitoring the progress of the various events occurring around the region and will provide further updates when available.