ASEAN Weekly Disaster Update, 19 - 25 November 2018
Regional Summary of Week 47, and Outlook for Week 47
In Week 47, hydro-meteorological disasters are still dominating. As Viet Nam had experienced a Tropical Depression “Toraji” last week and are still responding to the landslides and flooding resulting from the disaster. This week, they are bracing for Tropical Storm “Usagi”. However, pre-emptive evacuations and warnings have been issued to mitigate and reduce the impact of disaster in the same area.
Philippines had experienced Tropical Depression 33 “Samuel” which made landfall over 5 areas mainly in the Central Region. On the eastern seaboard, typhoon Man-Yi “Tomas” is currently hovering in the Pacific Ocean. It is expected to enter PH’s Area of Responsibility again by afternoon of 26 Nov but unlikely to make landfall.
ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) predicts during the Nov-Dec-Jan season, based on numerical prediction models, many parts of the ASEAN region especially over the equatorial region can expect above-normal temperatures while elsewhere, climatological probabilities are predicted. While near-normal or below-normal rainfall is predicted over the Philippines and the region surrounding the Java sea, there is some agreement among the models of an increased chance of above-normal rainfall over parts of northern Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo. In other areas, climatological probabilities are predicted. With the onset of the traditional dry season over the northern ASEAN region in December 2018, extended periods of drier weather could lead to an increase in hotspot activities. In contrast, rainy conditions over the southern ASEAN region are likely to keep hotspot activities generally subdued. However, there could still be isolated hotspots during occasional brief periods of dry weather.
Given the weather conditions, it will be prudent to look out for vector borne and water borne diseases following flash floods. Landslide risk should be taken note especially in areas with high risk of slope failure.
AHA Centre is monitoring the progress of the situation in Viet Nam and will provide updates once further information is available.