As generally expected for the early Southwest Monsoon season, isolated showers and moderate to heavy rainfall occurred in northern part of ASEAN region. Meanwhile, the southern region has experienced less to no rain. Moreover, several areas is already face drought during the week, series of earthquakes have occurred around East Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia with no significant damages were reported.
According to Indonesia’s National Disaster Management Organisation (BNPB), at least three (3) provinces in Indonesia, Central Java, East Java, and Special Region of Yogyakarta were exposed to drought. As many as 100,230 people were affected, and therefore, local government together with local DMO (BPBD) have sent support by distributing around a million litres of water across the affected areas. Since the Southwest Monsoon will continue, similar condition may likely occur throughout the southern region. In addition, BNPB’s Analysis Centre for Disaster Aware Situation (Pastigana), have identified several areas which may experience no-rain condition for more than sixty (60) days such as East Java, Bali, and East Nusa Tenggara Provinces.
During the Southwest Monsoon season, hydro-meteorological factors were the important aspects that could trigger disasters in the region. Based on the daily average rainfall by ASMC, southern part of ASEAN have experienced less to no-rain. If this condition continue, the escalation of hotspot activities particularly in fire prone areas could be expected.
Eight (8) earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 and above were recorded in Indonesia (BMKG). One of the earthquake with 6.3 M and 10 km depth, occurred in Sarmi Regency, Papua Province, Indonesia. The shaking has brought thirty three (33) houses collapsed. Four (4) volcanoes are still under close monitoring due to heightened alert status - Agung, Karangetang, Sinabung, and Soputan; all are in Indonesia (PVMBG) and all are on Alert Level 3 on a maximum of 4.
According to ASMC’s forecast, the prevailing winds will continue to blow in south-westerly direction. The dryer condition will be expected over many areas while scattered showers may occur in the equatorial region.