Regional Summary of Week 42, and Outlook for Week 43
1) In Week 42, the reported disasters are largely due to the change in season from Southwest to Northeast Monsoon. Southwestern parts of ASEAN has started to transit from the dry season to rainy season which resulted in the landslides and flash floods. In addition the disasters reported, AHA Centre also monitored several strong winds and occasional heavy rainfall in Java and Sulawesi Island, Indonesia.
2) AHA Centre is engaging in emergency response to the M 7.4 Central Sulawesi Earthquake following the welcome of international assistance by Government of Indonesia. Follow our regular updates here: https://ahacentre.org/indonesia-central-sulawesi-m-7-4-earthquakeand-tsunami-updates/.
3) Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology forecasted that due to a low pressure area over North Andaman Sea crossing over Deltaic areas, rain will be fairly widespread to widespread in Bago, Yangon, Ayeyarwady and Thaintharyi Regions, Kayah, Kayin and Mon States with isolated heavy rainfall.
4) In Week 42, VONA was for Mt Dukono and Mt Ibu in North Maluku was revised on 19 Oct due to increase activities (BG-PVMBG). BG-PVMBG recorded 16 occurrences of landslides over the past week with most happening in Sumatra while some are reported in Java and Sulawesi. An earthquake of M5.4 was recorded in Sarangani (Davao Occidental) but no damages were recorded thus far. There is no change in status of volcanoes in Philippines (PHIVOLCS).
5) ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) reported on the onset of inter-monsoon conditions in mid-October with the southern ASEAN region, including Sumatra and Kalimantan experiencing increase in shower activities. More rainy weather can be expected over the region with a gradual transition to the Northeast Monsoon season in the coming weeks. Hotspot activities in the southern ASEAN region are expected to remain generally subdued. While isolated hotspots may still emerge during brief periods of dry weather, these hotspots are likely to be localised and short-lived.
6) Aside from Central Sulawesi Earthquake & Tsunami, all the remaining disasters occurred in Week 41 were within the capacity of each Member State.