Amit Bhattacharya,TNN | Sep 18, 2014, 03.55 AM IST
NEW DELHI: Monsoon is likely to start withdrawing from the country within three-four days, more than a fortnight later than normal. With the withdrawal now in sight, the season's rain shortfall is expected to remain above 10%, making it a 'deficient' monsoon this year.
Monsoon's withdrawal normally starts around September 1 from west Rajasthan and it takes roughly a month and a half for the wind system to retreat completely from the country.
"Signs of monsoon's withdrawal are beginning to appear," said B P Yadav, director, India Meteorological Department. "Dryness is increasing in northwest India and reversal of wind patterns have started over west Rajasthan. If these conditions persist, we would declare the onset of withdrawal within this weekend."
The current countrywide monsoon deficit stands at 12% — close to IMD's third and latest monsoon forecast, made last month of 87% rainfall during the season. Yadav said there was little chance of the deficit changing too much at this late stage. "Barring a spectacular development, no great change in the deficit is expected," he said.
Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions in the country, 11 have received deficient rains while it has been normal in the others. For a subdivision, a deviation of up to 20% from average is considered normal while a deficit of between 20% and 60% is 'deficient' rainfall. Below 60% is considered 'scanty' rain.
The current rain deficit meets the criteria of a drought year — defined by IMD as a nationwide monsoon shortfall of more than 10%, with at least 20% of areas having a deficit of 25% or more.
However, IMD officials stressed that a declaration of a nationwide drought was meaningless and did not reflect the ground situation. They said the definition — given in IMD's website — was only for the purpose of analysis of rainfall.
"IMD does not declare a drought. This is done by respective state governments and the criterion for this isn't just rainfall but the water availability in an area. In any case, meteorologists across the world are using the term 'drought' less and less," said D Sivananda Pai, the lead monsoon forecaster at IMD Pune.
The technicality of the term aside, what really reduced the deficit this year was a late surge in rainfall. The monsoon deficit stood at a worrying 18% at the end of August following a three-week spell of low rainfall, including a weeklong 'break' in monsoon.
But heavy rains across north and central India in the first week of September changed the scenario. The widespread rainfall, coming so late in the season, wasn't without pain. It led to the devastating floods in Jammu and Kashmir, and threatened to destroy standing crops in Punjab and Haryana.