India

Long Range Forecast For the 2021 Southwest Monsoon Season Rainfall

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Summary of the Forecast for the 2021 southwest monsoon Rainfall

a) Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (96 to 104 % of Long Period Average (LPA)).

b) Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 98% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm.

c) Neutral ENSO conditions are prevailing over the Pacific Ocean and Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest global model forecast indicates neutral ENSOconditions are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific and negative IOD conditions are likely to develop over the Indian Ocean during the ensuing monsoon season.

As sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to have strong influence on Indian monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these Ocean basins.

IMD will issue the updated forecasts in the last week of May 2021. In addition to update for the April forecast, forecasts for monsoon season (JuneSeptember) rainfall for four homogenous regions and forecast for the month of June also will be issued.