Long Range Forecast For 2018 Southwest Monsoon Seasonal (June-September) Rainfall

Report
from Government of India
Published on 16 Apr 2018 View Original

Summary of the Forecast for the 2018 southwest monsoon Rainfall

a) Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 97% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.

b) Forecast also suggests maximum probability for normal monsoon rainfall (96-104% of LPA) and low probability for deficient rainfall during the season.

IMD will issue the update in early June, 2018 as a part of the second stage forecast. Along with the updated forecast, separate forecasts for the monthly (July and August) rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions of India will also be issued.